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Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal Circumstances, and Social Influence

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  • Rianne van Duinen
  • Tatiana Filatova
  • Peter Geurts
  • Anne van der Veen

Abstract

Drought‐induced water shortage and salinization are a global threat to agricultural production. With climate change, drought risk is expected to increase as drought events are assumed to occur more frequently and to become more severe. The agricultural sector's adaptive capacity largely depends on farmers’ drought risk perceptions. Understanding the formation of farmers’ drought risk perceptions is a prerequisite to designing effective and efficient public drought risk management strategies. Various strands of literature point at different factors shaping individual risk perceptions. Economic theory points at objective risk variables, whereas psychology and sociology identify subjective risk variables. This study investigates and compares the contribution of objective and subjective factors in explaining farmers’ drought risk perception by means of survey data analysis. Data on risk perceptions, farm characteristics, and various other personality traits were collected from farmers located in the southwest Netherlands. From comparing the explanatory power of objective and subjective risk factors in separate models and a full model of risk perception, it can be concluded that farmers’ risk perceptions are shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In a full risk perception model, being located in an area with external water supply, owning fields with salinization issues, cultivating drought‐/salt‐sensitive crops, farm revenue, drought risk experience, and perceived control are significant explanatory variables of farmers’ drought risk perceptions.

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  • Rianne van Duinen & Tatiana Filatova & Peter Geurts & Anne van der Veen, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Farmers' Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal Circumstances, and Social Influence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 741-755, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:4:p:741-755
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12299
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    4. Yuan, Shiwei & Li, Xin & Du, Erhu, 2021. "Effects of farmers’ behavioral characteristics on crop choices and responses to water management policies," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
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    6. Katengeza, Samson P. & Holden, Stein T. & Fisher, Monica, 2019. "Use of Integrated Soil Fertility Management Technologies in Malawi: Impact of Dry Spells Exposure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 134-152.
    7. Alison C. Cullen & C. Leigh Anderson & Pierre Biscaye & Travis W. Reynolds, 2018. "Variability in Cross‐Domain Risk Perception among Smallholder Farmers in Mali by Gender and Other Demographic and Attitudinal Characteristics," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1361-1377, July.
    8. Abiodun A. Ogundeji & Collins C. Okolie, 2022. "Perception and Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers to Drought Risk: A Scientometric Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, July.
    9. Enrico Biffis & Erik Chavez, 2017. "Satellite Data and Machine Learning for Weather Risk Management and Food Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1508-1521, August.
    10. Aistė Balžekienė & Audronė Telešienė & Vaidas Morkevičius, 2022. "Spatial Dependencies and the Relationship between Subjective Perception and Objective Environmental Risks in Lithuania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Yaoyao Wu & Hao Guo & Jing’ai Wang, 2018. "Quantifying the Similarity in Perceptions of Multiple Stakeholders in Dingcheng, China, on Agricultural Drought Risk Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Katrin Erdlenbruch & Bruno Bonté, 2018. "Simulating the dynamics of individual adaptation to floods," Post-Print hal-02175815, HAL.
    13. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Dugan, 2022. "On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.

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