IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v49y2025i4p3567-3602.html

How mineral resources rent collaborate with consumer price index, environmental policies, and economic performance in Türkiye and India: Evidence from artificial neural networks and machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Aqsa Nazir
  • Munawar Iqbal
  • Usman Mehmood
  • Zia Ul Haq
  • Asim Daud Rana
  • Hind Alofaysan

Abstract

Taking focus on the possible effects on welfare and environmental issues in Türkiye and India, this study explores the relationship between the leasing of mineral resources (MRs), economic performance, use of renewable energy, and environmental policies. The study estimates changes in MRs throughout economic expansion using artificial intelligence (artificial neural network [ANN]) and supervised machine learning (SML). It focuses on important variables like index of stringency of environmental policies and the consumer price index, the conclusions of the ANN, ensemble method, and ML studies show how sensitive quarterly changes in the rent on MRs are to changes in the consumer price index, economic performance, and the use of renewable energy. Evaluation criteria such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination highlight how much better ML models predict outcomes than ANN trials. In particular, the ML findings show an outstanding R2 of 0.99, an MAE of 0.6625, an MSE of 0.8324, a MAPE of 35.3677, and an RMSE of 0.9123 for India. Türkiye's machine learning results, on the other hand, display an MAE of 0.0164, an MSE of 0.0007, MAPE of 66.1594, RMSE of 0.0279, and a strong R2 of 0.98. For ANN, the error histogram is plotted to assess the model. The extremely low value of 0.0090 and 0.010, respectively, for Türkiye and India on the error histogram reflects the exceptional prediction quality. Türkiye and India have abundant MRs; however, they must be managed correctly for long‐term sustainability. Future researchers may verify this work using time series or panel data from other disciplines. This study examines factors affecting sustainable economic growth, including MR use, environmental policies, and eco‐friendly innovations. Other indicators, such as energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions, renewable energy consumption, and global value chain participation, may provide a different perspective. This study's conclusions should be verified by more research employing other geographic locations and others machine learning methods, as well as to illustrate how sustainable development is influenced by other variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Aqsa Nazir & Munawar Iqbal & Usman Mehmood & Zia Ul Haq & Asim Daud Rana & Hind Alofaysan, 2025. "How mineral resources rent collaborate with consumer price index, environmental policies, and economic performance in Türkiye and India: Evidence from artificial neural networks and machine learning," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3567-3602, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3567-3602
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-8947.12539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12539
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-8947.12539?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2021. "Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Hu, Hui & Xie, Nan & Fang, Debin & Zhang, Xiaoling, 2018. "The role of renewable energy consumption and commercial services trade in carbon dioxide reduction: Evidence from 25 developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1229-1244.
    3. Dan Black & Terra McKinnish & Seth Sanders, 2005. "The Economic Impact Of The Coal Boom And Bust," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 449-476, April.
    4. Zhang, Chao & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Liu, Gang & Zhu, Da-Jian, 2017. "Economic Growth and the Evolution of Material Cycles: An Analytical Framework Integrating Material Flow and Stock Indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 265-274.
    5. Madaleno, Mara & Dogan, Eyup & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "A step forward on sustainability: The nexus of environmental responsibility, green technology, clean energy and green finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Lin Xu & Zhenwei Guo, 2022. "Effect of Regulation on the Increasing Price of Metals and Minerals to Meet the Challenges in Clean Energy Transitions: A Case Study of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-13, January.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Destek, Mehmet & Sinha, Avik, 2020. "Renewable, non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and ecological footprint: Evidence from organisation for economic Co-operation and development countries," MPRA Paper 104246, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    9. Opeoluwa Seun Ojekemi & Mehmet Ağa & Cosimo Magazzino, 2023. "Towards Achieving Sustainability in the BRICS Economies: The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Cheng, Jinhua & Asante, Daniel Akwasi & Bosah, Philip, 2020. "Total natural resource rents, trade openness and economic growth in the top mineral-rich countries: New evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Weber, Jeremy G., 2014. "A decade of natural gas development: The makings of a resource curse?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-183.
    12. Bui, Nuong Thi & Kawamura, Akira & Kim, Kyoung Woong & Prathumratana, Lunchakorn & Kim, Tae-Heok & Yoon, Suk-Ho & Jang, Min & Amaguchi, Hideo & Bui, Duong Du & Truong, Ngoc Tu, 2017. "Proposal of an indicator-based sustainability assessment framework for the mining sector of APEC economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 405-417.
    13. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    14. Zhu, Huiming & Duan, Lijun & Guo, Yawei & Yu, Keming, 2016. "The effects of FDI, economic growth and energy consumption on carbon emissions in ASEAN-5: Evidence from panel quantile regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 237-248.
    15. Shi, Junguo & Liu, Yang & Sadowski, Bert M. & Alemzero, David & Dou, Shanshan & Sun, Huaping & Naseem, Sobia, 2023. "The role of economic growth and governance on mineral rents in main critical minerals countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Liu, Wenfeng & Zhang, Xingping & Feng, Sida, 2019. "Does renewable energy policy work? Evidence from a panel data analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 635-642.
    17. Wu Xiaoman & Abdul Majeed & Dinara G. Vasbieva & Claire Emilienne Wati Yameogo & Nazim Hussain, 2021. "Natural resources abundance, economic globalization, and carbon emissions: Advancing sustainable development agenda," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 1037-1048, September.
    18. Sulemana Mumuni & Thomas Mwimba, 2023. "Modeling the impact of green energy consumption and natural resources rents on economic growth in Africa: An analysis of dynamic panel ARDL and the feasible generalized least squares estimators," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2161774-216, December.
    19. Teng, Wei & Mamman, Suieiman O. & Xiao, Chengyou & Abbas, Shujaat, 2024. "Impact of natural resources on income equality in Gulf Cooperation Council: Evidence from machine learning approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Peng, Xuan & Mousa, Saeed & Sarfraz, Muddassar & Abdelmohsen A, Nassani & Haffar, Mohamed, 2023. "Improving mineral resource management by accurate financial management: Studying through artificial intelligence tools," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    21. Ulucak, Recep & Danish, & Ozcan, Burcu, 2020. "Relationship between energy consumption and environmental sustainability in OECD countries: The role of natural resources rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    22. Enrico Botta & Tomasz Koźluk, 2014. "Measuring Environmental Policy Stringency in OECD Countries: A Composite Index Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1177, OECD Publishing.
    23. Ma, Jun & Cheng, Jack C.P., 2016. "Identifying the influential features on the regional energy use intensity of residential buildings based on Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 193-201.
    24. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2016. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 134-151.
    25. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    26. Miao, Yang & Razzaq, Asif & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday & Awosusi, Abraham Ayobamiji, 2022. "Do renewable energy consumption and financial globalisation contribute to ecological sustainability in newly industrialized countries?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 688-697.
    27. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    28. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    29. Chen, Fu & Tiwari, Sunil & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Huo, Weidong & Jamróz, Paweł, 2023. "Minerals resource rent responses to economic performance, greener energy, and environmental policy in China: Combination of ML and ANN outputs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    30. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2018. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 695-731.
    31. Sarwar, Suleman & Aziz, Ghazala & Waheed, Rida & Morales, Lucía, 2024. "Forecasting the mineral resource rent through the inclusion of economy, environment and energy: Advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    32. Guy Michaels, 2011. "The Long Term Consequences of Resource‐Based Specialisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 31-57, March.
    33. Wang, Ran & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhu, Yali & Xiong, Weiwei, 2016. "Research on diversity of mineral resources carrying capacity in Chinese mining cities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 108-114.
    34. Zhang, Hong & Nguyen, Hoang & Vu, Diep-Anh & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Pradhan, Biswajeet, 2021. "Forecasting monthly copper price: A comparative study of various machine learning-based methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    35. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Zaidi, Syed Anees Haider & Khan, Naveed R. & Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Hou, Fujun & Kirmani, Syed Ali Ashiq, 2019. "The impact of natural resources, human capital, and foreign direct investment on the ecological footprint: The case of the United States," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    36. Minjing Yang & Cosimo Magazzino & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi & Navzodbek Abdulloev, 2024. "Determinants of Load capacity factor in BRICS countries: A panel data analysis," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 525-548, May.
    37. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2022. "Revisiting the nexus of ecological footprint, unemployment, and renewable and non-renewable energy for South Asian economies: Evidence from novel research methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 1060-1070.
    38. Guliyev, Hasraddin & Mustafayev, Eldayag, 2022. "Predicting the changes in the WTI crude oil price dynamics using machine learning models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    39. Qi, Tianyu & Zhang, Xiliang & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "The energy and CO2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 60-69.
    40. Mideksa, Torben K., 2013. "The economic impact of natural resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 277-289.
    41. Zar Shah & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & Awais Rashid, 2022. "The Economic Value of Natural Resources and Its Implications for Pakistan’s Economic Growth," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-33, October.
    42. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sharma, Rajesh & Sinha, Avik & Jiao, Zhilun, 2021. "Analyzing nonlinear impact of economic growth drivers on CO2 emissions: Designing an SDG framework for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    43. Chang, Lei & Iqbal, Sajid & Chen, Huangen, 2023. "Does financial inclusion index and energy performance index co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    44. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Gozgor, Giray & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Human capital and export diversification as new determinants of energy demand in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 335-349.
    45. Çoban, Serap & Topcu, Mert, 2013. "The nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the EU: A dynamic panel data analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 81-88.
    46. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    47. O'Hara, Sabine & Kakovitch, Thomas S., 2023. "Water as driver of economic capacity: Introducing a physical economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Fu & Tiwari, Sunil & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Huo, Weidong & Jamróz, Paweł, 2023. "Minerals resource rent responses to economic performance, greener energy, and environmental policy in China: Combination of ML and ANN outputs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. He, Xiaoping & Mou, Dunguo, 2020. "Impacts of mineral resources: Evidence from county economies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Sarwar, Suleman & Aziz, Ghazala & Waheed, Rida & Morales, Lucía, 2024. "Forecasting the mineral resource rent through the inclusion of economy, environment and energy: Advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Nicoletta Corrocher & Camilla Lenzi & Marie-Louise Deshaires, 2020. "The curse of natural resources: an empirical analysis of European regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1694-1708, December.
    5. Lingli Qing & Peng Li & Yaode Wang & Usman Mehmood & Hind Alofaysan, 2025. "Non‐linear nexus of mineral rents, coal rents, foreign direct investment, and environmental sustainability: Importance of institutional quality in E‐7 nations," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 2393-2414, August.
    6. Hwang, Young Kyu & Díez, Ángeles Sánchez & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2024. "The effects of critical mineral endowments on green economic growth in Latin America," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, 2020. "Can resource policy reverse the resource curse? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    9. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel & Rickardsson, Jonna, 2024. "Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in the Labor Market: Evidence from a Mining Boom and Bust," OSF Preprints tzmf2, Center for Open Science.
    10. James, Alexander, 2019. "Fata morganas in oil-rich, institution-poor economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-242.
    11. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Michieka, Nyakundi M. & Gearhart, Richard S., 2018. "Resource curse? The case of Kern County," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 446-459.
    13. Akram, Vaseem & Ali, Jabir, 2022. "Do countries converge in natural resources rents? Evidence from club convergence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Armand Totouom & Hilaire Nkengfack & Joseph Pasky Ngameni, 2024. "Effect of dependence on natural resources on employment quality: Insights from African countries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 68(4), pages 805-825, October.
    15. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, "undated". "The Effect of Resource Wealth on Regional Economic Development in China," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291114, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Weinstein, Amanda & Partridge, Mark & Tsvetkova, Alexandra, 2017. "Follow the Money: How Does the Income Flow After an Energy Boom," MPRA Paper 77336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Boire, Sidiki & Nell, Kevin S., 2021. "The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Yang, Bin & Wu, Qiong & Sharif, Arshian & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "Non-linear impact of natural resources, green financing, and energy transition on sustainable environment: A way out for common prosperity in NORDIC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3567-3602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.