IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v54y2022i5p1141-1173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

General Purpose Technologies as Systematic Risk in Global Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • PO‐HSUAN HSU
  • HUIJUN WANG
  • WEI YANG

Abstract

General purpose technologies (GPTs)—a class of technologies with pervasive impacts on the economy and spillover across countries—are a source of nondiversifiable risk in international equity markets. An empirical GPT factor from patent data can explain a substantial fraction of the cross‐sectional variation of global stock returns using the new econometric methodology developed by Kan, Robotti, and Shanken (2013). Moreover, the GPT factor is distinct from total factor productivity and other macrofactors in our tests. Our results suggest that a considerable degree of financial market integration may be attributable to technology diffusion as an underlying mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Huijun Wang & Wei Yang, 2022. "General Purpose Technologies as Systematic Risk in Global Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1141-1173, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:5:p:1141-1173
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12915
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12915?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    2. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 411-427.
    3. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2718-2759.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    5. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    6. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
    7. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. "Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-986, July.
    8. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christopher W. Anderson & Luis Garcia‐Feijóo, 2006. "Empirical Evidence on Capital Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 171-194, February.
    10. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Julien Sauvagnat, 2019. "The Globalization Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2391-2439, October.
    11. Gong, Guan & Keller, Wolfgang, 2003. "Convergence and polarization in global income levels: a review of recent results on the role of international technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1079, June.
    12. Frederic Scherer, 1984. "Using Linked Patent and R&D Data to Measure Interindustry Technology Flows," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 417-464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    15. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    16. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    17. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    19. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Johnson, Timothy C., 2007. "Optimal learning and new technology bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2486-2511, November.
    22. Ronald J. Balvers & Li Gu & Dayong Huang, 2017. "Profitability, Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1621-1651, October.
    23. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    24. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Hirshleifer, David & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Li, Dongmei, 2013. "Innovative efficiency and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 632-654.
    26. Watanabe, Akiko & Xu, Yan & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2013. "The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 529-563.
    27. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    28. Balvers, Ronald J. & Huang, Dayong, 2007. "Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 405-445, November.
    29. Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2011. "Investment Shocks and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 639-685.
    30. Branstetter, Lee G., 2001. "Are knowledge spillovers international or intranational in scope?: Microeconometric evidence from the U.S. and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 53-79, February.
    31. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    32. Branstetter, Lee, 2006. "Is foreign direct investment a channel of knowledge spillovers? Evidence from Japan's FDI in the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 325-344, March.
    33. Laitner, John & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2004. "Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 191-233, January.
    34. Lin, Xiaoji & Palazzo, Berardino & Yang, Fan, 2020. "The risks of old capital age: Asset pricing implications of technology adoption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-161.
    35. Lipsey, Richard G. & Carlaw, Kenneth I. & Bekar, Clifford T., 2005. "Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290895.
    36. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    37. Kamien, Morton I & Schwartz, Nancy L, 1975. "Market Structure and Innovation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-37, March.
    38. Bresnahan, Timothy, 2010. "General Purpose Technologies," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 761-791, Elsevier.
    39. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    40. Stephen R Foerster & G Andrew Karolyi, 1993. "International Listings of Stocks: The Case of Canada and the U.S," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 763-784, December.
    41. Ron Giammarino & Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher, 2004. "Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for Post-SEO Performance," 2004 Meeting Papers 812, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "Specification tests of international asset pricing models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 275-307, March.
    43. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang, 2019. "External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3500-3543.
    44. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
    45. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Wu, Ying, 2018. "A New Partial-Segmentation Approach to Modeling International Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 507-546, April.
    46. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    47. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    48. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2577-2603 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-570, August.
    50. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
    51. Titman, Sheridan & John Wei, K. C. & Xie, Feixue, 2013. "Market Development and the Asset Growth Effect: International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1405-1432, October.
    52. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. "Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
    53. Belo, Frederico, 2010. "Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 146-163, March.
    54. Ilan Cooper, 2006. "Asset Pricing Implications of Nonconvex Adjustment Costs and Irreversibility of Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 139-170, February.
    55. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    56. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing, and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2417-2448, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald J. Balvers & Li Gu & Dayong Huang, 2017. "Profitability, Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1621-1651, October.
    2. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    3. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    4. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    5. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    6. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Hsiao-Hui Lee & Tong Zhou, 2022. "Patent Thickets, Stock Returns, and Conditional CAPM," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8343-8367, November.
    7. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    8. Jun Li & Huijun Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2021. "The expected investment growth premium," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 905-933, December.
    9. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 411-427.
    11. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    12. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    13. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cho, Thummim, 2020. "Turning alphas into betas: arbitrage and endogenous risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102085, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Chaieb, Ines & Langlois, Hugues & Scaillet, Olivier, 2021. "Factors and risk premia in individual international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 669-692.
    16. Ward, Colin, 2020. "Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 283-316.
    17. Cooper, Ilan & Priestley, Richard, 2011. "Real investment and risk dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 182-205, July.
    18. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    19. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.
    20. Su, Xuan-Qi, 2016. "Does systematic distress risk drive the investment growth anomaly?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 240-248.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:5:p:1141-1173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.