IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v34y2022i4p823-860.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach

Author

Listed:
  • Rosario Betho
  • Marcia Chelengo
  • Sam Jones
  • Michael Keller
  • Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy
  • Dirk van Seventer
  • Finn Tarp

Abstract

This study assesses the economic costs of COVID‐19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosario Betho & Marcia Chelengo & Sam Jones & Michael Keller & Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy & Dirk van Seventer & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 823-860, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:823-860
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3601
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.3601?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044, December.
    3. Steven Kapsos, 2006. "The Employment Intensity of Growth: Trends and Macroeconomic Determinants," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jesus Felipe & Rana Hasan (ed.), Labor Markets in Asia, chapter 0, pages 143-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. António S. Cruz & Fausto Mafambissa & Mónica Magáua & Vincenzo Salvucci & Dirk van Seventer, 2018. "A 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 020, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 485-519, April.
    6. António S. Cruz & Fausto J. Mafambissa & Mónica Magáua & Vincenzo Salvucci & Dirk van Seventer, 2018. "A 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Santos & Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2021. "Horizontal and intersecting inequalities in Mozambique: 1997-2017," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    3. Júlio Vicente Cateia & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Luc Savard, 2023. "Funding schemes for infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea‐Bissau," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1505-1529, August.
    4. Nilifer Anaç & Eva-Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Ricardo Santos & Alex Warren-Rodriguez, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in Maputo," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-173, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Sam Jones & Ivan Manhique, 2021. "Informal freelancers in the time of COVID-19: Insights from a digital matching platform in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-95, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid‐19 crisis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1895-1918, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orietta Nicolis & Jean Paul Maidana & Fabian Contreras & Danilo Leal, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability: A Clustering Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Quibria, M.G., 2020. "Poverty and Policy in the Developing World: Before and After the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 104240, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2020.
    3. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    4. Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa & Djoulassi K. Oloufade, 2023. "Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 437-470, April.
    5. Isaac K. Ofori & Mark K. Armah & Emmanuel E. Asmah, 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," Working Papers 21/043, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    6. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    7. Ian M. McDonald, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy to Aid Recovery after Social Distancing for COVID‐19," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 415-428, September.
    8. Amrita Ahuja & Susan Athey & Arthur Baker & Eric Budish & Juan Camilo Castillo & Rachel Glennerster & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Kremer & Jean Lee & Canice Prendergast & Christopher M. Snyder & Ale, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 331-335, May.
    9. repec:thr:techub:10020:y:2021:i:1:p:100-107 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," NBER Working Papers 28339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Yannick Markhof, 2020. "Pakistan's social protection response to the COVID-19 pandemic: the adequacy of Ehsaas emergency cash and the road ahead," Working Papers 188, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    13. Marcos Deuñas & Mercedes Campi & Luis Olmos, 2020. "Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions in Bogotá city during the COVID-19 outbreak," Working Papers 30, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    14. Nasir Ababulgu & Nugusa Abajobir & Hika Wana, 2022. "The embarking of COVID-19 and the perishable products’ value chain in Ethiopia," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Marco Due~nas & V'ictor Ortiz & Massimo Riccaboni & Francesco Serti, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Trade: a Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis," Papers 2104.04570, arXiv.org.
    16. MARINOV, Eduard, 2022. "The Transforming Role Of Developing Countries In Global Trade," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 10(1), pages 264-275, October.
    17. World Bank, 2020. "India Development Update, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34367, The World Bank Group.
    18. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Ben Yahmed, Sarra & Cappellari, Lorenzo & Checchi, Daniele & Corak, Miles & Jenkins, Stephen P. & Neidhöfer, Guido & Tertilt, Michele & Tommasi, Mariano, 2020. "COVID-19 and inequality," ZEW policy briefs 5/2020, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    21. Kara, Alper & Nanteza, Aziidah & Ozkan, Aydin & Yildiz, Yilmaz, 2022. "Board gender diversity and responsible banking during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:823-860. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.