IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v34y2022i4p771-802.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • Giulia Barletta
  • Finório Castigo
  • Eva‐Maria Egger
  • Michael Keller
  • Vincenzo Salvucci
  • Finn Tarp

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of COVID‐19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts. We assume two main impact channels: direct income/wage and employment losses. Our simulations suggest that consumption decreased by 7.1%–14.4% and that poverty increased by 4.3–9.9 percentage points in 2020. This points to a reversal of the positive poverty reduction trend observed in previous years. Poverty most certainly increased in the pre‐COVID period due to other shocks, so Mozambique finds itself in a deepening struggle against poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:771-802
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3599
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.3599?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    2. Giovanni Valensisi, 2020. "COVID-19 and Global Poverty: Are LDCs Being Left Behind?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1535-1557, December.
    3. Kathleen Beegle & Rajeev Dehejia & Roberta Gatti, 2003. "Child Labor, Crop Shocks, and Credit Constraints," NBER Working Papers 10088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Laborde Debucquet, David & Martin, Will & Vos, Rob, 2020. "Poverty and food insecurity could grow dramatically as COVID-19 spreads," IFPRI book chapters, in: COVID-19 and global food security, chapter 2, pages 16-19, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
    6. Janssens, Wendy & Pradhan, Menno & de Groot, Richard & Sidze, Estelle & Donfouet, Hermann Pythagore Pierre & Abajobir, Amanuel, 2021. "The short-term economic effects of COVID-19 on low-income households in rural Kenya: An analysis using weekly financial household data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Jose Cuesta & Julieth Pico, 2020. "The Gendered Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Colombia," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1558-1591, December.
    8. Rosario Betho & Marcia Chelengo & Sam Jones & Michael Keller & Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy & Dirk van Seventer & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 823-860, May.
    9. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    10. Melanie Khamis & Daniel Prinz & David Newhouse & Amparo Palacios-Lopez & Utz Pape & Michael Weber, 2021. "Early Labor Market Impacts of COVID-19 in Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 35047, The World Bank Group.
    11. Bandara, Amarakoon & Dehejia, Rajeev & Lavie-Rouse, Shaheen, 2015. "The Impact of Income and Non-Income Shocks on Child Labor: Evidence from a Panel Survey of Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 218-237.
    12. Egger, Dennis & Miguel, Edward & Warren, Shana S. & Shenoy, Ashish & Collins, Elliott & Karlan, Dean & Parkerson, Doug & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Fink, Günther & Udry, Christopher & Walker, Michael & Hau, 2021. "Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    13. Asep Suryahadi & Ridho Al Izzati & Daniel Suryadarma, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 175-192, May.
    14. Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid‐19 crisis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1895-1918, November.
    15. Giorgia Menta, 2021. "Poverty in the COVID-19 Era: Real-time Data Analysis on Five European Countries," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Research on Economic Inequality: Poverty, Inequality and Shocks, volume 29, pages 209-247, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. José Cardoso & João Morgado & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2016. "Mapping deprivation in Mozambique: An analysis of census data (1997-2007)," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-166, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Edmonds, Eric V., 2006. "Child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 386-414, December.
    18. Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2001. "Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-436, September.
    19. José Cardoso & João Morgado & Vincenzo Salvucci, 2016. "Mapping deprivation in Mozambique: An analysis of census data (1997–2007)," WIDER Working Paper Series 166, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2001. "Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-436, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rosario Betho & Marcia Chelengo & Sam Jones & Michael Keller & Ibraimo Hassane Mussagy & Dirk van Seventer & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The macroeconomic impact of COVID‐19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 823-860, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    2. Lazzaroni, Sara & Wagner, Natascha, 2016. "Misfortunes never come singly: Structural change, multiple shocks and child malnutrition in rural Senegal," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 246-262.
    3. Naschold, Felix & Walker, Thomas F. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Osei, Robert, 2011. "Idiosyncratic shocks, risk management and welfare dynamics in rural Ghana," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 109646, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Palacios, Paola & Rojas-Velásquez, Libardo, 2023. "Impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in the municipalities of Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Ardyn Nordstrom & Christopher Cotton, 2020. "Impact of a Severe Drought on Education: More Schooling but Less Learning," Working Paper 1430, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Naschold, Felix, 2016. "Getting ahead or falling behind? – The importance of households’ ability to manage idiosyncratic risk in rural Ghana," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235720, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Tsukada, Rachel & Lehmann, Christian, 2016. "The impact of rainwater harvesting on household labor supply," MERIT Working Papers 2016-045, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    9. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Baez, Javier E., 2011. "Civil wars beyond their borders: The human capital and health consequences of hosting refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 391-408, November.
    11. Marshall Burke & Erick Gong & Kelly Jones, 2015. "Income Shocks and HIV in Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1157-1189, June.
    12. Aguilar, Arturo & Vicarelli, Marta, 2022. "El Niño and children: Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Petrou, Stavros & Kupek, Emil, 2010. "Poverty and childhood undernutrition in developing countries: A multi-national cohort study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(7), pages 1366-1373, October.
    14. Datar, Ashlesha & Liu, Jenny & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Stecher, Chad, 2013. "The impact of natural disasters on child health and investments in rural India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 83-91.
    15. Jeffrey A. Flory, 2011. "Micro-Savings & Informal Insurance in Villages: How Financial Deepening Affects Safety Nets of the Poor, A Natural Field Experiment," Working Papers 2011-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    16. Thuan Q. Thai & Evangelos M. Falaris, 2014. "Child Schooling, Child Health, and Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 1025-1037, July.
    17. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Higuchi, Katsuhiko & Suhaeti, Rita Nur, 2009. "Impacts of prenatal and environmental factors on child growth: Evidence from Indonesia," IFPRI discussion papers 933, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Thuan Quang Thai & Evangelos M. Falaris, 2010. "The Effect of Child Health on Schooling: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," Working Papers 10-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    19. Schneider, Eric & Ogasawara, Kota & Cole, Tim J., 2020. "The Effect of the Second World War on the Growth Pattern of Height in Japanese Children: Catch-up Growth, Critical Windows and," CEPR Discussion Papers 14808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Futoshi Yamauchi, 2012. "Prenatal Seasonality, Child Growth, and Schooling Investments: Evidence from Rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 1323-1341, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:34:y:2022:i:4:p:771-802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.