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Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia


  • Asep Suryahadi
  • Ridho Al Izzati
  • Daniel Suryadarma


Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Asep Suryahadi & Ridho Al Izzati & Daniel Suryadarma, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 175-192, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:56:y:2020:i:2:p:175-192
    DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390

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    Cited by:

    1. Brata, Aloysius Gunadi & Triandaru, Sigit & Patnasari, Yenny & Setyastuti, Rini & Sutarta, Agustinus Edi & Sukamto, Andreas, 2022. "The Spanish Flu Pandemic and Income Distribution in Java: Lessons from the 1920s," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(3), pages 103-117.
    2. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Jahen F. Rezki & Arief Ramayandi & Aryo Sasongko & Dinda T. Andariesta, 2022. "The Potential Scarring Effect Of Covid19 On Productivity And Labor Market: The Case Of Indonesia," Working Papers WP/09/2022, Bank Indonesia.
    3. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    4. Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba & Somlanare Romuald Kinda & Idrissa Mohamed Ouedraogo, 2020. "Could Covid-19 Worsen Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1379-1401, December.
    5. Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches & Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín & Ignacio Oteiza, 2021. "Behavior Patterns, Energy Consumption and Comfort during COVID-19 Lockdown Related to Home Features, Socioeconomic Factors and Energy Poverty in Madrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Takahiro Akita & Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, 2023. "The Initial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Regional Economies in Indonesia: Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Takahiro Akita & Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, 2023. "The Initial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Regional Economies and Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bi-dimensional Inequality Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers EMS_2023_02, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    8. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Aloysius Gunadi Brata & Eusebius Pantja Pramudya & Esther Sri Astuti & Heffi Christya Rahayu & Heronimus Heron, 2021. "COVID-19 and Socio-Economic Inequalities in Indonesia: A Subnational-level Analysis," Working Papers DP-2021-04, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    10. Soltanisehat, Leili & González, Andrés D. & Barker, Kash, 2023. "Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Fernando de Frutos & Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches & Carmen Alonso & Fernando Martín-Consuegra & Borja Frutos & Ignacio Oteiza & Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín, 2021. "Indoor Environmental Quality and Consumption Patterns before and during the COVID-19 Lockdown in Twelve Social Dwellings in Madrid, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-45, July.
    13. Ouoba, Youmanli & Sawadogo, Natéwindé, 2022. "Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders’ households," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

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