IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/iecrev/v65y2024i2p623-654.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth, Housing, And Global Imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • LUIS FRANJO
  • LUISA LAMBERTINI
  • SERHIY STEPANCHUK

Abstract

In the decade leading to the Great Recession, the United States experienced rising house prices and current account deficits, whereas China and other fast‐growing Asian economies saw rising house prices accompanied by current account surpluses. To explain these differences, we study a transition path in a two‐country life‐cycle model with housing once the two economies become financially integrated. We allow for asymmetries in productivity growth, the loan‐to‐value ratio, the life‐cycle wage profile, and the population structure across countries. Our findings highlight that differences in the life‐cycle pattern of the wage income profile are key to obtaining our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Franjo & Luisa Lambertini & Serhiy Stepanchuk, 2024. "Growth, Housing, And Global Imbalances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 623-654, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:65:y:2024:i:2:p:623-654
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12674
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12674
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/iere.12674?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    2. Antonia Díaz & María José Luengo-Prado, 2010. "The Wealth Distribution With Durable Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(1), pages 143-170, February.
    3. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    5. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    6. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    7. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, August.
    8. Gete, Pedro, 2020. "Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. William G. Gale & John Karl Scholz, 1994. "Intergenerational Transfers and the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 145-160, Fall.
    10. Franjo, Luis, 2018. "International interest rates, the current account and housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 268-280.
    11. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    13. Andrea Ferrero, 2015. "House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 261-293, March.
    14. Arslan Yavuz, 2014. "Interest rate fluctuations and equilibrium in the housing market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 173-204, January.
    15. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes & Alessandro Rebucci, 2015. "Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 301-335, March.
    16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    17. Basco, Sergi, 2014. "Globalization and financial development: A model of the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 78-94.
    18. Sommer, Kamila & Sullivan, Paul & Verbrugge, Randal, 2013. "The equilibrium effect of fundamentals on house prices and rents," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 854-870.
    19. Zan Yang & Jie Chen, 2014. "Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-54044-8, June.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/169d87l3e88rpoi5e1tgckfi6a is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Gregory C. Chow, 2004. "Economic Reform and Growth in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(1), pages 127-152, May.
    22. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima, 2015. "The Demand For Liquid Assets, Corporate Saving, And International Capital Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1101-1135, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Franjo, Luis, 2018. "International interest rates, the current account and housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 268-280.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Bulent Guler, 2015. "Innovations in Information Technology and the Mortgage Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 456-483, July.
    6. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2024. "Housing, Distribution, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 981-1020, August.
    7. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393116, HAL.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Grossmann, Volker & Larin, Benjamin & Löfflad, Hans Torben & Steger, Thomas, 2021. "Distributional consequences of surging housing rents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    14. Peter Bednarek & Daniel Marcel te Kaat & Chang Ma & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles:Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 5077-5134.
    15. Josef Schroth, 2016. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle?," Staff Working Papers 16-53, Bank of Canada.
    16. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Kai Zhao, 2020. "Household Saving, Financial Constraints, And The Current Account In China," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 71-103, February.
    17. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    18. Hung Ly-Dai, 2019. "Non-linear pattern of international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 575-600, August.
    19. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulos, 2021. "Real Estate and Rental Markets during Covid Times," Documents de recherche 21-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    20. Gatt, William, 2024. "Wealth inequality and the distributional effects of maximum loan-to-value ratio policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    21. Schroth, Josef, 2023. "Capital flows and growth across developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    22. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:65:y:2024:i:2:p:623-654. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.