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Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk

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  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota

Abstract

This article studies the public debt implications of an analytically tractable class of incomplete insurance macroeconomic models in which agents face a near‐zero probability of a highly adverse outcome. In generic models of this kind, there exists a public debt bubble, so that the real interest rate is perpetually below the growth rate (set to zero). There is no upper bound on the deficit level or debt level that is sustainable in a bubbly equilibrium. In a public debt bubble, ex ante steady‐state welfare is higher if the government chooses policies that give rise to a larger level of debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Public Debt Bubbles In Heterogeneous Agent Models With Tail Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 491-509, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:64:y:2023:i:2:p:491-509
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2025. "Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(5), pages 1601-1633, September.
    3. Lenel, Moritz, 2022. "Comment on “The supply and demand for safe assets”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 148-150.
    4. Masataka Eguchi & Toshiya Hatano, 2023. "What is fiscal sustainability?―Transversality condition, Domar condition, the fiscal theory of the price level―," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 19(3), pages 1-29, September.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public debt when r," Discussion Papers 2111, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 2022. "Stabilization with fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Cristina Arellano, 2021. "Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies," Working Papers 2021-15, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2023. "Infinite Debt Rollover in Stochastic Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1629-1658, September.
    9. Jianjun Miao & Zhouxiang Shen & Dongling Su, 2025. "Inflation and Debt Rollover Under Low Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1781-1807, December.
    10. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Bubble Necessity Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(1), pages 111-145.
    11. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2021-37, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    12. Osband, Kent & Filoso, Valerio & Capasso, Salvatore, 2024. "The limits of limitless debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public dept when r," BIS Working Papers 939, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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