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Permanent Primary Deficits, Idiosyncratic Long-Run Risk, and Growth

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  • Amol Amol
  • Erzo G. J. Luttmer

Abstract

We consider an economy with perpetual youth and inelastic labor supply that grows endogenously. Consumers are subject to idiosyncratic capital accumulation risk and markets are incomplete. The government purchases consumption goods, makes transfers in the form of baby bonds, and it can use consumption and wealth taxes. The wealth distribution is given in closed form. When the intertemporal elasticity of substitution ɛ is equal to 1, the government can run a permanent primary deficit, up to a finite upper bound, if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is high enough and the factor share of labor is not too close to 1. This causes the risk-free rate r to be below the growth rate g of the economy. But the government can implement Pareto improvements when r - g does not exceed zero by enough. If ɛ ≠ 1, then there may not be an upper bound on the permanent primary deficits of the government. If ɛ Є (0,1), this happens when the economy is relatively unproductive, and then taking deficits to be very large makes all consumers worse off. If ɛ Є (1,∞), very large deficits are possible if the economy is sufficiently productive, and then they imply unbounded Pareto improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Amol Amol & Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2022. "Permanent Primary Deficits, Idiosyncratic Long-Run Risk, and Growth," Working Papers 794, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:95117
    DOI: 10.21034/wp.794
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run idiosyncratic risk; Public debt; Endogenous growth; Incomplete markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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