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Attention Felons: Evaluating Project Safe Neighborhoods in Chicago

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  • Andrew V. Papachristos
  • Tracey L. Meares
  • Jeffrey Fagan

Abstract

This research uses a quasi‐experimental design to evaluate the impact of Project Safe Neighborhood (PSN) initiatives on neighborhood‐level crime rates in Chicago. Four interventions are analyzed: (1) increased federal prosecutions for convicted felons carrying or using guns, (2) the length of sentences associated with federal prosecutions, (3) supply‐side firearm policing activities, and (4) social marketing of deterrence and social norms messages through justice‐style offender notification meetings. Using individual growth curve models and propensity scores to adjust for nonrandom group assignment of neighborhoods, our findings suggest that several PSN interventions are associated with greater declines of homicide in the treatment neighborhoods compared to the control neighborhoods. The largest effect is associated with the offender notification meetings that stress individual deterrence, normative change in offender behavior, and increasing views on legitimacy and procedural justice. Possible competing hypotheses and directions for individual‐level analysis are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew V. Papachristos & Tracey L. Meares & Jeffrey Fagan, 2007. "Attention Felons: Evaluating Project Safe Neighborhoods in Chicago," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), pages 223-272, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:4:y:2007:i:2:p:223-272
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2007.00096.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    3. Heejung Bang & James M. Robins, 2005. "Doubly Robust Estimation in Missing Data and Causal Inference Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 962-973, December.
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    1. Braga, Anthony A., 2008. "Pulling levers focused deterrence strategies and the prevention of gun homicide," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 332-343, August.
    2. Lorraine Mazerolle & Sarah Bennett & Matthew Manning & Patricia Ferguson & Elise Sargeant, 2010. "PROTOCOL: Legitimacy in Policing," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32.
    3. Christopher S. Koper & Evan Mayo‐Wilson, 2012. "Police strategies to reduce illegal possession and carrying of firearms: effects on gun crime," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 1-53.
    4. Barnes, J.C. & Kurlychek, Megan C. & Miller, Holly Ventura & Miller, J. Mitchell & Kaminski, Robert J., 2010. "A partial assessment of South Carolina's Project Safe Neighborhoods strategy: Evidence from a sample of supervised offenders," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 383-389, July.
    5. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gravel, Jason & Bouchard, Martin & Descormiers, Karine & Wong, Jennifer S. & Morselli, Carlo, 2013. "Keeping promises: A systematic review and a new classification of gang control strategies," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 228-242.
    7. Aaron Chalfin & Michael LaForest & Jacob Kaplan, 2021. "Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1047-1082, September.

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