Rainfall timing, forage growth, and insuring forage: Linking producer perceptions to observational data

The timing and amount of rainfall are crucial in forage growth. Producer perceptions of the rainfall distribution are likely to influence their choices related to the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Rainfall Index insurance program. Because of the scarcity of forage production data, diversity of forage production systems, and climates throughout the United States, the correlation between the timing of rainfall and forage growth varies substantially. Using survey data from the northeastern and southeastern United States, we provide a snapshot of producers' perceptions on the relevant rainfall timing for forage growth. We also show that the perceptions do not align with actual insurance enrollment in the surveyed counties. We provide an empirical framework linking survey responses to county‐level observational data using a Bayesian approach to determine the months when rainfall is most important for forage growth. We find that the producers' perceptions act as useful priors and are consistent with the county‐level analysis. Our methods demonstrate a framework for combining survey data with secondary data to overcome data constraints that can be applied to other contexts beyond the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Rainfall Index insurance program.