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The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030

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  • Angus Maddison

Abstract

This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000 AD, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita GDP in Western Europe and the US was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore – had achieved considerable catch up. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomenon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and, by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. Maddison concludes by comparing his analysis with the Malthusian interpretation of Oded Galor.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus Maddison, 2008. "The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(4), pages 75-100, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:355
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    1. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    2. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2004. "From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Inequality and the Process of Development," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1001-1026.
    3. Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204.
    4. Deepak Lal, 2008. "An Indian Economic Miracle?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 28(1), pages 11-34, Winter.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    6. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
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    9. Pranab Bardhan, 2006. "Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    2. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2011. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2003-2041, August.
    3. Schlör, Holger & Fischer, Wolfgang & Hake, Jürgen-Friedrich, 2012. "The meaning of energy systems for the genesis of the concept of sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 192-200.
    4. Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2013. "The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(2), pages 192-224, April.
    5. Seung Mo Choi & Hwagyun Kim & Xiaohan Ma, 2021. "Trade policies and growth in emerging economies: policy experiments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 603-629, August.
    6. Erica L. Plambeck & L. Beril Toktay, 2013. "Introduction to the Special Issue on the Environment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 523-526, October.
    7. Gars, Johan & Olovsson, Conny, 2019. "Fuel for economic growth?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. John Foster, 2015. "Energy, Knowledge and Economic Growth," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & John Foster (ed.), The Evolution of Economic and Innovation Systems, edition 127, pages 9-39, Springer.
    9. Mukherjee, Debmalya & Kumar, Satish & Mukherjee, Deepraj & Goyal, Kirti, 2022. "Mapping five decades of international business and management research on India: A bibliometric analysis and future directions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 864-891.
    10. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Clio And The Economist: Making Historians Count," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 755-774, December.

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