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Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030

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  • Angus MADDISON

Abstract

This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita gross domestic product in Western Europe and the USA was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore – had achieved considerable catch‐up. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomenon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and, by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my projections for 2030 with those of Goldman Sachs, Perkins and Rawski, and Fogel.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus MADDISON, 2008. "Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 67-82, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:67-82
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x
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    1. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500–2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Gannon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long run convergence," Sciences Po publications 2016-09, Sciences Po.
    2. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Jonathan Haskel, 2016. "Do Poor Countries Catch Up to Rich Countries? Review Article on Productivity Convergence: Theory and Evidence by Edward Wolff," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 111-117, Spring.
    4. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Frédérique GANNON & Gilles LE GARREC & Vincent TOUZÉ, 2020. "The South’s Demographic Transtiton and International Capital Flows in a Financially Integrated World Economy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    6. Rotarou, Elena S. & Sakellariou, Dikaios, 2017. "Neoliberal reforms in health systems and the construction of long-lasting inequalities in health care: A case study from Chile," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(5), pages 495-503.
    7. Marcus NOLAND, 2008. "Comment on “Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 83-84, June.
    8. TN Srinivasan, 2013. "Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. Angus Maddison, 2009. "L’Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell’economia mondiale: un’interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030," ARGOMENTI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2009(27), pages 7-30.

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