L’Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell’economia mondiale: un’interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030

The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000-2030 Maddisonian and Malthusian Interpretations - This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita GDP in western Europe and the US was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Hong and Singapore had achieved considerable catchup. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my analysis with the Malthusian interpretation of Oded Galor.