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Spatial-Endogenous Fire Risk and Efficient Fuel Management and Timber Harvest

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  • Masashi Konoshima
  • Claire A. Montgomery
  • Heidi J. Albers
  • Jeffrey L. Arthur

Abstract

This paper integrates a spatial fire-behavior model and a stochastic dynamic-optimization model to determine the optimal spatial pattern of fuel management and timber harvest. Each year’s fire season causes the loss of forest values and lives in the western United States. We use a multi-plot analysis and incorporate uncertainty about fire ignition location s and weather conditions to inform policy by examining the role of spatial endogenous risk—where management actions on one stand affect fire risk in that and adjacent stands. The results support two current strategies, but question two other strategies, for managing forests with fire risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Masashi Konoshima & Claire A. Montgomery & Heidi J. Albers & Jeffrey L. Arthur, 2008. "Spatial-Endogenous Fire Risk and Efficient Fuel Management and Timber Harvest," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(3), pages 449-468.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:84:y:2008:i:3:p:449-468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Gregory S. Amacher & Arun S. Malik & Robert G. Haight, 2005. "Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire Prevention in Forest Management," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(2).
    3. Jonathan Yoder, 2004. "Playing with Fire: Endogenous Risk in Resource Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 933-948.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron J. Enriquez & Kevin Berry & Maria Fernandez & Nichar Gregory & Kacey C. Ernst & Mary H. Hayden & Maria Diuk-Wasser, 2025. "Simple Stated Preference Questions Can Enhance Transdisciplinary Projects: Linking Perceived Risks With Willingness to Spray and Pay," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(1), pages 81-124, January.
    2. Christian Langpap & JunJie Wu, 2021. "Preemptive Incentives and Liability Rules for Wildfire Risk Management," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1783-1801, October.
    3. Shady S. Atallah & Miguel I. Gómez & Jon M. Conrad, 2017. "Specification of Spatial-Dynamic Externalities and Implications for Strategic Behavior in Disease Control," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 93(2), pages 209-229.
    4. Alvelos, Filipe & Martins, Isabel & Marques, Susete, 2025. "Forest management with fire simulation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 321(3), pages 991-1003.
    5. Rashidi, Eghbal & Medal, Hugh & Gordon, Jason & Grala, Robert & Varner, Morgan, 2017. "A maximal covering location-based model for analyzing the vulnerability of landscapes to wildfires: Assessing the worst-case scenario," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1095-1105.
    6. David Aadland & Charles Sims & David Finnoff, 2015. "Spatial Dynamics of Optimal Management in Bioeconomic Systems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 545-577, April.
    7. Christopher Costello & Nicolas Querou & Agnès Tomini, 2014. "Spatial concessions with limited tenure," Post-Print hal-01123392, HAL.
    8. Minas, James P. & Hearne, John W. & Martell, David L., 2014. "A spatial optimisation model for multi-period landscape level fuel management to mitigate wildfire impacts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 412-422.
    9. Michael S. Hand & Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer & David E. Calkin & Matthew P. Thompson, 2015. "Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(10), pages 1876-1891, October.
    10. Lauer, Christopher J. & Montgomery, Claire A. & Dietterich, Thomas G., 2017. "Spatial interactions and optimal forest management on a fire-threatened landscape," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-120.
    11. Kim Meyer Hall & Heidi J. Albers & Majid Alkaee Taleghan & Thomas G. Dietterich, 2018. "Optimal Spatial-Dynamic Management of Stochastic Species Invasions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(2), pages 403-427, June.
    12. Travis Warziniack & Patricia Champ & James Meldrum & Hannah Brenkert-Smith & Christopher M. Barth & Lilia C. Falk, 2019. "Responding to Risky Neighbors: Testing for Spatial Spillover Effects for Defensible Space in a Fire-Prone WUI Community," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1023-1047, August.
    13. Charles Sims & David Aadland & David Finnoff & James Powell, 2013. "How Ecosystem Service Provision Can Increase Forest Mortality from Insect Outbreaks," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(1), pages 154-176.
    14. Gwenlyn M. Busby & Heidi J. Albers & Claire A. Montgomery, 2012. "Wildfire Risk Management in a Landscape with Fragmented Ownership and Spatial Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(3), pages 496-517.
    15. Kim, Taeyoung & Langpap, Christian, 2016. "Agricultural landowners’ response to incentives for afforestation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 93-111.
    16. Prante, Tyler & Little, Joseph M. & Jones, Michael L. & McKee, Michael & Berrens, Robert P., 2011. "Inducing private wildfire risk mitigation: Experimental investigation of measures on adjacent public lands," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 415-431.
    17. Warziniack, Travis & Sims, Charles & Haas, Jessica, 2019. "Fire and the joint production of ecosystem services: A spatial-dynamic optimization approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Sims, Charles & Aadland, David & Finnoff, David, 2010. "A dynamic bioeconomic analysis of mountain pine beetle epidemics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2407-2419, December.
    19. James Minas & John Hearne & David Martell, 2015. "An integrated optimization model for fuel management and fire suppression preparedness planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 232(1), pages 201-215, September.
    20. Wang, Yuhan & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Wildfires and climate change have lowered the economic value of western U.S. forests by altering risk expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    21. Bhuiyan, Tanveer Hossain & Moseley, Maxwell C. & Medal, Hugh R. & Rashidi, Eghbal & Grala, Robert K., 2019. "A stochastic programming model with endogenous uncertainty for incentivizing fuel reduction treatment under uncertain landowner behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 699-718.
    22. Susete Marques & Marco Marto & Vladimir Bushenkov & Marc McDill & JoséG. Borges, 2017. "Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
    23. Rossi, David & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka, 2023. "Carbon and Timber Management in Western Oregon under Tax-Financed Investments in Wildfire Risk Mitigation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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