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Dynamic Natural Monopoly Regulation: Time Inconsistency, Moral Hazard, and Political Environments

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  • Claire S. H. Lim
  • Ali Yurukoglu

Abstract

This paper quantitatively assesses time inconsistency, moral hazard, and political ideology in monopoly regulation of electricity distribution. We specify and estimate a dynamic model of utility regulation featuring investment and moral hazard. We find underinvestment in electricity distribution capital aiming to reduce power outages and use the estimated model to quantify the value of regulatory commitment in inducing greater investment. Furthermore, more conservative political environments grant higher regulated returns but have higher rates of electricity loss. Using the estimated model, we quantify how conservative regulators thus mitigate welfare losses due to time inconsistency but worsen losses from moral hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire S. H. Lim & Ali Yurukoglu, 2018. "Dynamic Natural Monopoly Regulation: Time Inconsistency, Moral Hazard, and Political Environments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 263-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/695474
    DOI: 10.1086/695474
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    Cited by:

    1. S.N. Silvestrov & N.V. Kuznetsov & V.V. Ponkratov & D.A. Smirnov & N.E. Kotova, 2018. "Investment Development of Russian Regions Backed up by Natural Monopolies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 89-99.
    2. Philippon, Thomas & Gutierrez, German, 2018. "How EU Markets Became More Competitive Than US Markets: A Study of Institutional Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 12983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Du, Weijian & Li, Mengjie & Wang, Faming, 2020. "Role of rent-seeking or technological progress in maintaining the monopoly power of energy enterprises: An empirical analysis based on micro-data from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. You-hua Chen & Zhuang Zhang & Ashok K. Mishra, 2023. "A flexible and efficient hybrid agricultural subsidy design for promoting food security and safety," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Yasunori Ouchida & Daisaku Goto, 2022. "Strategic non‐use of the government's precommitment ability for emissions taxation: Environmental R&D formation in a Cournot duopoly," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 181-206, March.
    6. Josse Delfgaauw & Otto H. Swank, 2023. "The Political Economy of Commitment to Policies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-060/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," Papers 2109.01725, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    8. Karen Clay & Akshaya Jha & Joshua A. Lewis & Edson R. Severnini, 2021. "Impacts of the Clean Air Act on the Power Sector from 1938-1994: Anticipation and Adaptation," NBER Working Papers 28962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ana Espinola-Arredondo & Felix Munoz-Garcia & Dolores Garrido, 2023. "Measuring regulatory errors from environmental policy uncertainty," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 48-65, December.
    10. Liu Yao & Mukherjee Arijit, 2024. "Lobbying for Tariff Protection, International Technology Licensing and Consumer Surplus," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 117-139, January.
    11. Johnstone, David & Havyatt, David, 2022. "Sophistry and high electricity prices in Australia," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Fiocco, Raffaele & Guo, Dongyu, 2020. "Regulatory risk, vertical integration, and upstream investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    13. Pena-Bello, A. & Barbour, E. & Gonzalez, M.C. & Patel, M.K. & Parra, D., 2019. "Optimized PV-coupled battery systems for combining applications: Impact of battery technology and geography," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 978-990.
    14. Robert Clark & Mario Samano, 2022. "Incentivized Mergers and Cost Efficiency: Evidence from the Electricity Distribution Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 791-837, December.
    15. Brucal, Arlan & Tarui, Nori, 2021. "The effects of utility revenue decoupling on electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    16. Camilo Hern'andez & Dylan Possamai, 2023. "Time-inconsistent contract theory," Papers 2303.01601, arXiv.org.
    17. Espinola-Arredondo, Ana & Munoz-Garcia, Felix, 2021. "Abolishing Environmental Regulation: Strategic E§ects and Welfare Implications," Working Papers 2018-7, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    18. Wang, Chang & Guo, Yue & Yang, Yu & Chen, Shiyi, 2022. "The environmental benefits of electricity industry restructuring in China: Ownership mixing vs. vertical unbundling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Guthrie, Graeme, 2020. "Regulation, welfare, and the risk of asset stranding," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 273-287.
    20. Sears, Louis S. & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Walter, M. Todd, 2020. "Groundwater Under Open Access: A Structural Model of the Dynamic Common Pool Extraction Game," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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