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Estimating the Effect of America's Most Wanted: A Duration Analysis of Wanted Fugitives

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  • Miles, Thomas J

Abstract

Fugitives fleeing criminal prosecution and punishment are a major obstacle in the effort to fight crime, and conventional wisdom holds that publicity, such as the television program America's Most Wanted, successfully locates wanted fugitives. This paper estimates a hazard model of fugitive flight using a sample of recently pursued fugitives and tests whether a fugitive's appearance on the television program America's Most Wanted hastens apprehension. The estimates show that broadcasting a fugitive's profile on America's Most Wanted substantially raises the apprehension hazard by a factor of seven and shortens the expected fugitive spell by roughly a fourth. The estimates also suggest that the television program provides a net social benefit. A fugitive's demographic and offense characteristics also correlate with the apprehension hazard.

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  • Miles, Thomas J, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of America's Most Wanted: A Duration Analysis of Wanted Fugitives," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 281-306, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:y:2005:v:48:i:1:p:281-306
    DOI: 10.1086/428718
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    1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    2. Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1244-1250, September.
    3. Sueyoshi, Glenn T., 1992. "Semiparametric proportional hazards estimation of competing risks models with time-varying covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 25-58.
    4. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
    5. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine rodr�guez & fabio sánchez, 2012. "Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments, And Child Labor: Evidence From Colombia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 161-184, April.
    2. Thomas J. Miles, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the FBI's Ten Most Wanted," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 275-308, June.
    3. Howard Bodenhorn & Carolyn Moehling & Gregory N. Price, 2012. "Short Criminals: Stature and Crime in Early America," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 393-419.
    4. Bierie, David M., 2014. "Fugitives in the United States," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 327-337.

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