IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia


  • Australian Treasury

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)


Australia's strong economic performance in recent years has reflected several key influences in the supply side of the economy — including strong growth in the labour force, declining structural unemployment, and rapid growth in productivity. Demographic projections point to Australia's population growth slowing over the next 50 years and, in turn, the population ageing. Under these circumstances, it is likely that the growth in the labour force will decline, perhaps significantly, although the outcome will be influenced by future trends in labour force participation, particularly amongst older workers. These emerging trends in the labour force suggest that, for any given rate of productivity growth, Australia's trend GDP growth could be lower over future decades than during the 1990s, with some of these influences becoming apparent towards the later part of the coming decade. On the other hand, growth in GDP per capita — which is a more appropriate indicator of the growth in living standards — is not expected to decline to the same extent, if at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Australian Treasury, 2000. "Demographic influences on long-term economic growth in Australia," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 27-48, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2000_4_1

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
    2. Peter Forsyth, 2000. "Microeconomic Policies and Structural Change," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Phillip King & Harriet Jackson, "undated". "Public Finance Implications of Population Ageing," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2000-08, Department of Finance Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.

    More about this item


    demographic trends; economic growth; labour supply;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2000_4_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia)). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.