Has the Stability and Growth Pact Changed the Likelihood of Excessive Deficits in the European Union?
This paper presents an empirical analysis of excessive deficit spells in the European Union using transition data methods. Probabilities of transition between excessive and nonexcessive deficit states are estimated with time-varying macroeconomic covariates as explanatory variables. The quantitative effects of discretionary fiscal and monetary policies and cyclical factors on transition probabilities are disentangled so that we can account for what factors and by how much they contributed to certain member countries' breaching of the Pact. Another finding is that the Stability and Growth Pact seems to have reinforced fiscal discipline in most of the member countries.
Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
- Dornbusch, Rudi, 1997. "Fiscal Aspects of Monetary Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 221-23, May.
- Masson, Paul R, 1996. "Fiscal Dimensions of EMU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 996-1004, July.
- repec:imf:imfpdp:9607 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007.
"The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & Hagen, Jürgen von, 2006. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 150, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," Working Paper Series 0419, European Central Bank.
- Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003.
"Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2006.
"Are there Political Budget Cycles in the Euro Area?,"
European Union Politics,
, vol. 7(2), pages 191-211, June.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1532, CESifo Group Munich.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004.
"On the Desirability of Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union,"
NBER Working Papers
10232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "On the desirability of fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Staff Report 330, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:65-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()or () or ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.