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Has the Stability and Growth Pact Changed the Likelihood of Excessive Deficits in the European Union?

  • S. Tolga Tiryaki

This paper presents an empirical analysis of excessive deficit spells in the European Union using transition data methods. Probabilities of transition between excessive and nonexcessive deficit states are estimated with time-varying macroeconomic covariates as explanatory variables. The quantitative effects of discretionary fiscal and monetary policies and cyclical factors on transition probabilities are disentangled so that we can account for what factors and by how much they contributed to certain member countries' breaching of the Pact. Another finding is that the Stability and Growth Pact seems to have reinforced fiscal discipline in most of the member countries.

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Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 65-83

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:65-83
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  1. A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, 06.
  2. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  4. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1997. "Fiscal Aspects of Monetary Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 221-23, May.
  6. Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," Working Paper Series 0419, European Central Bank.
  7. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "On the desirability of fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Staff Report 330, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  9. Masson, Paul R, 1996. "Fiscal Dimensions of EMU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 996-1004, July.
  10. Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Has the Stability and Growth Pact Impeded Political Budget Cycles in the European Union?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1532, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
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