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The Driving Downturn: A Preliminary Assessment

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  • Michael Manville
  • David A. King
  • Michael J. Smart

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: We examine why American driving fell between 2004 and 2013, weighing two explanations: that Americans voluntarily moved away from driving (“peak car”), and that economic hardship reduced driving. We analyze aggregate data on travel, incomes, debt, public opinion, and Internet access. These data lack the precision of microdata, but unlike microdata are available annually for years before, during, and after driving’s decline. We find substantial evidence for the economic explanation. During the downturn the cost of driving rose while median incomes fell. The economy grew overall, but did so unequally. Mass driving requires a mass middle class, but economic gains accrued largely to the most affluent. We find less evidence for “peak car.” If Americans voluntarily drove less, they would likely use other modes more. However, despite heavy investment in bicycle infrastructure and public transportation in the 2000s, demand for these modes remained flat while driving fell.Takeaway for practice: If Americans were voluntarily abandoning automobiles for other modes, planners could reduce investments in automobile infrastructure and increase investments in alternative mobility. Driving’s decline, however, was not accompanied by a transit surge or substantial shift to other modes. The lesson of the driving downturn is that people drive less when driving’s price rises. Planners obviously do not want incomes to fall, but they should consider policies that increase driving’s price. Planners might also rethink the current direction of U.S. transit policy; transit use did not rise even when driving fell at an unprecedented pace.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Manville & David A. King & Michael J. Smart, 2017. "The Driving Downturn: A Preliminary Assessment," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 83(1), pages 42-55, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjpaxx:v:83:y:2017:i:1:p:42-55
    DOI: 10.1080/01944363.2016.1247653
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Emmanuel Saez, 2013. "Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2011 preliminary estimates)," Technical Notes 201301, World Inequality Lab.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kailai Wang & Xize Wang, 2022. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Papers 2206.11056, arXiv.org.
    2. Manville, Michael & Levine, Adam Seth, 2018. "What motivates public support for public transit?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 567-580.
    3. Qing Shen & Yiyuan Wang & Casey Gifford, 2021. "Exploring partnership between transit agency and shared mobility company: an incentive program for app-based carpooling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2585-2603, October.
    4. Meng Zhou & Donggen Wang, 2019. "Investigating inter-generational changes in activity-travel behavior: a disaggregate approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1643-1687, October.
    5. Wang, Kailai & Wang, Xize, 2021. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," SocArXiv n3a9e, Center for Open Science.
    6. Klein, Nicholas J. & Guerra, Erick & Smart, Michael J., 2018. "The Philadelphia story: Age, race, gender and changing travel trends," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 19-25.
    7. Wang, Yiyuan & Shen, Qing, 2023. "An economic analysis of incorporating new shared mobility into public transportation provision," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 263-273.
    8. Wesley E. Marshall & Eric Dumbaugh, 2020. "Revisiting the relationship between traffic congestion and the economy: a longitudinal examination of U.S. metropolitan areas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 275-314, February.

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