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The rise and decline of gradualism in Slovenia

  • Matija Rojec
  • Janez Sustersic
  • Bostjan Vasle
  • Marijana Bednas
  • Slavica Jurancic

Slovenia is a typical representative of a gradualist approach to transition. The prevailing view in Slovenia is that the gradualist approach has been the best solution. Contrary to this view, this article claims that the gradualist approach to transition gives positive results in the initial period but gradually reduces the pace of reform and leads to the postponement of some necessary steps, resulting in worsening economic trends. It provides empirical evidence in support of this thesis, indicating (i) gradual worsening of the level of export competitiveness and lagging behind in the restructuring of the Slovenian manufacturing sector, thus slowing down the process of real convergence; (ii) that the most important reason for persistent inflation, which is the major problem of Slovenia's nominal convergence, is structural—slow restructuring in tradables and lack of reform in non-tradables—and is a direct consequence of a slow transition process. The article concludes that the exogenous shock of EU accession, which puts pressure on economic policy, is welcome for the badly needed acceleration of the reform process in Slovenia. Economic policy should use this exogenous shock for the accomplishment of the remaining structural reforms.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 16 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 459-482

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:16:y:2004:i:4:p:459-482
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  1. Roland, Gérard, 1994. "On the Speed and Sequencing of Privatization and Restructuring," CEPR Discussion Papers 942, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Gerard Roland, 1994. "The role of political constraints in transition strategies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(1), pages 27-41, 03.
  3. Dewatripont, Mathias & Roland, Gérard, 1991. "The Virtues of Gradualism and Legitimacy in the Transition to a Market Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Roland, G., 1992. "The Political Economy of Restructuring and Privatization in Eastern Europe," Papers 9218, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
  5. Michael Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2002. "The CEECs in the Enlarged Europe: Convergence Patterns, Specialization and Labour Market Implications," wiiw Research Reports 286, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  6. Mathias Dewatripont, 1992. "Economic Reform and Dynamic Political Constraints," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/175991, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Mathias Dewatripont & Gérard Roland, 1996. "Transition as a process of large-scale institutional change," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, 05.
  8. Peter Havlik & Michael Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2001. "Competitiveness of CEE Industries: Evidence From Foreign Trade Specialization and Quality Indicators," wiiw Research Reports 278, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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