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Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty


  • Randolph Luca Bruno


In the 1990s - during the restructuring of large state enterprises - Central European economies experienced high unemployment. Social policy expenditures, particularly targeted to the non-employed, grew faster than expected due to the need to finance the "out-of-the-labour" categories. In 1992, after the Passive Labour Market Policies' reforms, the pace of transition decelerated. Unemployment dynamics, speed of transition and non-employment policies are modelled based on the assumption that the labour force is shrinking over time. Dismissed workers have the opportunity to choose an "outside-option" alternative to labour force participation. Individual uncertainty is assumed in a first phase of transition, while aggregate uncertainty - generating opposition to restructuring - is modelled in a second phase. The model predicts a slowdown in the speed of transition. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Randolph Luca Bruno, 2006. "Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:14:y:2006:i:1:p:69-100

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gomulka, Stanislaw, 1992. "Polish Economic Reform, 1990-91: Principles, Policies and Outcomes," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 355-372, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Balla, Katalin & Köllo, János & Simonovits, András, 2008. "Transition with heterogeneous labor," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 203-220, September.
    2. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    3. Ichiro Iwasaki & Taku Suzuki, 2016. "Radicalism Versus Gradualism: An Analytical Survey Of The Transition Strategy Debate," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 807-834, September.
    4. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas Velde & Jan Svejnar, 2017. "Effects Of Labor Reallocation On Productivity And Inequality—Insights From Studies On Transition," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 712-732, July.
    5. Munich, Daniel & Svejnar, Jan, 2007. "Unemployment in East and West Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 681-694, August.
    6. Jan Svejnar & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2015. "Productivity and Inequality Effects of Rapid Labor Reallocation – Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Studies on Transition," Working Papers 2015-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Dal Bianco, Silvia & Bruno, Randolph L. & Signorelli, Marcello, 2015. "The joint impact of labour policies and the “Great Recession” on unemployment in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-26.
    8. Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2014. "Can We Really Explain Worker Flows in Transition Economies?," Working Papers 2014-28, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Roberto Dell'Anno & Stefania Villa, 2013. "Growth in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 381-417, July.
    10. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic, 2006. "Employment Developments in Central and Eastern Europe," wiiw Research Reports 332, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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