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The Russian Crisis: A Debt Perspective

  • Niko Gobbin
  • Bruno Merlevede

On 17 August 1998 the Russian authorities devalued the ruble, suspended repayments of ruble-denominated government paper and announced a moratorium on the Russian foreign debt. By doing so the government brought the domestic banking sector to the edge of bankruptcy and risked losing the little international faith still remaining in its abilities to restructure the economy. In this article we examine the deeper causes of the crisis. After having analysed its antecedents we gather our new insights into a basic stylised model of the crisis. The outcome of the model is then linked to the actual data and events.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 141-163

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:12:y:2000:i:2:p:141-163
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  1. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Garber, P.M. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Papers 588, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1997. "Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 383-390, September.
  10. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Self-Protection for Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 6907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 91/10, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Betty C. Daniel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Predictability of Exchange Rate Collapse," IMF Working Papers 97/133, International Monetary Fund.
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