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The Russian Crisis: A Debt Perspective

  • Niko Gobbin
  • Bruno Merlevede

On 17 August 1998 the Russian authorities devalued the ruble, suspended repayments of ruble-denominated government paper and announced a moratorium on the Russian foreign debt. By doing so the government brought the domestic banking sector to the edge of bankruptcy and risked losing the little international faith still remaining in its abilities to restructure the economy. In this article we examine the deeper causes of the crisis. After having analysed its antecedents we gather our new insights into a basic stylised model of the crisis. The outcome of the model is then linked to the actual data and events.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 141-163

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:12:y:2000:i:2:p:141-163
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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "Fixed Exchange Rates As a Means to Price Stability: What Have we Learned?," Papers 553, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Betty C. Daniel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Predictability of Exchange Rate Collapse," IMF Working Papers 97/133, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Self-Protection for Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 6907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911 Elsevier.
  9. Robert P. Flood & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Working Papers 91/99, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 91/10, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1997. "Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 383-390, September.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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