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Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models

Author

Listed:
  • Robert P. Flood

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Nancy P. Marion

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

After the speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates in Europe and in Mexico, economists began to develop models of currency crises with multiple solutions. In these models, a currency crisis occurs when the economy jumps suddenly from one solution to another. This paper examines one of the new models, as presented by Obstfeld (1994), and finds that raising the cost of devaluation may make a crisis more likely. Consequently, slow convergence to a monetary union, which increases the cost to the government of reneging on an exchange rate peg, may be counterproductive. This conclusion is exactly the opposite of that obtained from earlier models.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1997. "Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 383-390, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:44:y:1997:i:3:p:383-390
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    Cited by:

    1. Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Niko Gobbin & Bruno Merlevede, 2000. "The Russian Crisis: A Debt Perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 141-163.
    5. M. Isabel Campos López & M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Business Cycle Speculative Pressures in a Target Zone," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-04, FEDEA.
    6. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Financial Crises, Poverty, and Income Distribution," IMF Working Papers 2002/004, International Monetary Fund.

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