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Towards a ‘new normal’ growth strategy: China in comparative perspective

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  • Jörg Mayer

Abstract

China’s move towards a new normal has been motivated by domestic factors and accelerated by the decline in export opportunities to developed countries. This decline, combined with the knock-on effects of China’s growth adjustments, is disrupting the favourable external environment that made developing countries’ export-led development strategies viable. This paper concentrates on a rebalancing of developing countries’ growth strategies towards a greater weight of household consumption as a potential alternative and discusses three challenges -- market size, domestic purchasing power and balance-of-payments constraints. Concentrating on the latter, it analyses changes in sectoral compositions of consumer demand and patterns of international trade. Results point to the risk that a shift in growth strategy causes an import surge. The paper’s findings indicate the scope and speed of required product innovation that would prevent a rebalancing of growth strategies towards a greater role of consumption from running into balance-of-payments constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörg Mayer, 2016. "Towards a ‘new normal’ growth strategy: China in comparative perspective," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 107-128, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:14:y:2016:i:2:p:107-128
    DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2016.1183109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. P. Thirlwall, 2003. "Trade, the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2957, December.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
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