IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v31y2017i4p555-577.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simultaneous Estimation of Legal and Illegal Supply and Demand: The Case of Motion Pictures

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Koschmann
  • Douglas Bowman

Abstract

Prior research into illegal goods has typically looked at one-way effects, such as illegal demand on legal demand. This research investigates a previously unexamined component of the market, illegal supply. The authors examine the supply and demand of legal goods and their illegal counterparts as a market system of four interdependent components. This research makes theoretical and empirical contributions by evaluating illegal supply in this system. Simultaneous equations estimate each market component on the others using data from the motion picture industry. The results find illegal supply has no effect on legal supply (movie screens), positive effects on illegal demand (piracy downloads), and some effect on legal demand (box office revenues). Timing effects highlight this: illegal supply has a positive effect on legal demand during a film’s opening week, but no effect post-launch. The other market components have positive effects on illegal supply (except legal supply, which is negative in the opening week). Additionally, illegal demand has a negative effect on legal demand during the opening week of release, but not in the subsequent weeks. This finding alleviates prior research tension as to whether piracy helps or hurts legal sales, as omitting illegal supply could result in biased estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Koschmann & Douglas Bowman, 2017. "Simultaneous Estimation of Legal and Illegal Supply and Demand: The Case of Motion Pictures," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 555-577, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:31:y:2017:i:4:p:555-577
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2017.1398767
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10168737.2017.1398767
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10168737.2017.1398767?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
    2. Sanjay Jain, 2008. "Digital Piracy: A Competitive Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 610-626, 07-08.
    3. Smith, Rodney T, 1976. "The Legal and Illegal Markets for Taxed Goods: Pure Theory and an Application to State Government Taxation of Distilled Spirits," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 393-429, August.
    4. Amit M. Joshi & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2009. "Movie Advertising and the Stock Market Valuation of Studios: A Case of “Great Expectations?”," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 239-250, 03-04.
    5. Chrysanthos Dellarocas, 2006. "Strategic Manipulation of Internet Opinion Forums: Implications for Consumers and Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(10), pages 1577-1593, October.
    6. Gary S. Becker & William M. Landes, 1974. "Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck74-1.
    7. Stan J. Liebowitz, 2008. "Research Note--Testing File Sharing's Impact on Music Album Sales in Cities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 852-859, April.
    8. Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep Chintagunta, 1999. "A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136.
    9. Brett Danaher & Samita Dhanasobhon & Michael D. Smith & Rahul Telang, 2010. "Converting Pirates Without Cannibalizing Purchasers: The Impact of Digital Distribution on Physical Sales and Internet Piracy," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 1138-1151, 11-12.
    10. Sungho Park & Sachin Gupta, 2012. "Handling Endogenous Regressors by Joint Estimation Using Copulas," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 567-586, July.
    11. Peitz, Martin & Waelbroeck, Patrick, 2006. "Piracy of digital products: A critical review of the theoretical literature," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 449-476, November.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    13. Basuroy, Suman & Chatterjee, Subimal, 2008. "Fast and frequent: Investigating box office revenues of motion picture sequels," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(7), pages 798-803, July.
    14. Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Koleman Strumpf, 2007. "The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 1-42.
    15. Joel Waldfogel, 2012. "Music Piracy and Its Effects on Demand, Supply, and Welfare," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 91-110.
    16. Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Shyam Gopinath & Sriram Venkataraman, 2010. "The Effects of Online User Reviews on Movie Box Office Performance: Accounting for Sequential Rollout and Aggregation Across Local Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 944-957, 09-10.
    17. Xinxin Li & Lorin M. Hitt, 2008. "Self-Selection and Information Role of Online Product Reviews," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 456-474, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jordi McKenzie, 2023. "The economics of movies (revisited): A survey of recent literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 480-525, April.
    2. Anthony Koschmann & Yi Qian, 2020. "Latent Estimation of Piracy Quality and its Effect on Revenues and Distribution: The Case of Motion Pictures," NBER Working Papers 27649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Koschmann & Yi Qian, 2020. "Latent Estimation of Piracy Quality and its Effect on Revenues and Distribution: The Case of Motion Pictures," NBER Working Papers 27649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Miguel Godinho de Matos & Pedro Ferreira & Michael D. Smith, 2018. "The Effect of Subscription Video-on-Demand on Piracy: Evidence from a Household-Level Randomized Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5610-5630, December.
    3. Darren Filson & James H. Havlicek, 2018. "The performance of global film franchises: installment effects and extension decisions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 42(3), pages 447-467, August.
    4. Kanazawa, Kyogo & Kawaguchi, Kohei, 2022. "Displacement effects of public libraries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Hofmann, Julian & Clement, Michel & Völckner, Franziska & Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten, 2017. "Empirical generalizations on the impact of stars on the economic success of movies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 442-461.
    6. Angela (Xia) Liu & Tridib Mazumdar & Bo Li, 2015. "Counterfactual Decomposition of Movie Star Effects with Star Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(7), pages 1704-1721, July.
    7. Juan Feng & Xin Li & Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang, 2019. "Online Product Reviews-Triggered Dynamic Pricing: Theory and Evidence," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 1107-1123, December.
    8. Burmester, Alexa B. & Eggers, Felix & Clement, Michel & Prostka, Tim, 2016. "Accepting or fighting unlicensed usage: Can firms reduce unlicensed usage by optimizing their timing and pricing strategies?," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 343-356.
    9. Bradley, Wendy A. & Kolev, Julian, 2023. "How does digital piracy affect innovation? Evidence from software firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(3).
    10. Hailin Zhang & Xina Yuan & Tae Ho Song, 2020. "Examining the role of the marketing activity and eWOM in the movie diffusion: the decomposition perspective," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 589-608, September.
    11. Wojciech Hardy & Michal Krawczyk & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Friends or foes? A meta-analysis of the link between "online piracy" and sales of cultural goods," Working Papers 2015-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Bae, Giwoong & Kim, Hye-jin, 2019. "The impact of movie titles on box office success," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 100-109.
    13. Luis Aguiar & Jörg Claussen & Christian Peukert, 2018. "Catch Me If You Can: Effectiveness and Consequences of Online Copyright Enforcement," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 656-678, September.
    14. Shijie Lu & Xin (Shane) Wang & Neil Bendle, 2020. "Does Piracy Create Online Word of Mouth? An Empirical Analysis in the Movie Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 2140-2162, May.
    15. Cho, Daegon & Hwang, Youngdeok & Park, Jongwon, 2018. "More buzz, more vibes: Impact of social media on concert distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 103-113.
    16. Delre, Sebastiano A. & Panico, Claudio & Wierenga, Berend, 2017. "Competitive strategies in the motion picture industry: An ABM to study investment decisions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-99.
    17. Schulz, Petra & Shehu, Edlira & Clement, Michel, 2019. "When consumers can return digital products: Influence of firm- and consumer-induced communication on the returns and profitability of news articles," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 454-470.
    18. Christophe Bellégo & Romain De Nijs, 2020. "The Unintended Consequences of Antipiracy Laws on Markets with Asymmetric Piracy: The Case of the French Movie Industry," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 1064-1086, December.
    19. Haris Krijestorac & Rajiv Garg & Vijay Mahajan, 2020. "Cross-Platform Spillover Effects in Consumption of Viral Content: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis Using Synthetic Controls," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 449-472, June.
    20. Lee, Jonathan F., 2018. "Purchase, pirate, publicize: Private-network music sharing and market album sales," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 35-55.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:31:y:2017:i:4:p:555-577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.