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Do lower mortgage rates mean higher housing prices?

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  • James McGibany
  • Farrokh Nourzad

Abstract

Much research has shown that mortgage rates exert a negative influence on housing prices. This study analyses the long- and short-run relationships between housing prices and mortgage rates using advanced nonstructural estimation methods. As expected, a bivariate specification and a four-variable housing demand specification both show that these variables have a long-run relationship, and that there is a rather inelastic response of housing prices to changes in mortgage rates. However, contrary to previous research, the results from Granger non-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions reveal that there is virtually no short-run influence from mortgage rates to housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • James McGibany & Farrokh Nourzad, 2004. "Do lower mortgage rates mean higher housing prices?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 305-313.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:4:p:305-313
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840410001674231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kearl, J R & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1977. "Illiquidity, the Demand for Residential Housing, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1571-1586, December.
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    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christy Siegel & Steven B. Caudill & Franklin G. Mixon, 2013. "Clear skies, dark waters: The Gulf oil spill and the price of coastal condominiums in Alabama," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 42-53.
    2. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 259-267.
    3. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kincal, Gokce & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Holcomb, James H. & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market," MPRA Paper 29095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    6. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    7. Mario Fortin, 2015. "Why has the mortgage debt increased by so much in Canada?," Cahiers de recherche 15-03, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    8. Chyi Lin Lee, 2009. "Housing price volatility and its determinants," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 293-308, August.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Inflation and Bubbles in the Japanese Condominium Market," MPRA Paper 71192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kuethe, Todd H. & Pede, Valerien O., 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level Data," Working papers 47596, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    11. Ioannis Ganoulis & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "Financial liberalization and house price dynamics in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2671-2688.
    12. Arturo José Galindo & Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Mortgage Interest Rates, Country Risk and Maturity Matching in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 004544, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    13. Al-Sulami, Dawlah & Jiang, Zhenyu & Lu, Zudi & Zhu, Jun, 2017. "Estimation for semiparametric nonlinear regression of irregularly located spatial time-series data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 22-35.
    14. Sei-Wan Kim & Radha Bhattacharya, 2009. "Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 443-460, May.

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