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The US National Tobacco Settlement: the effects of advertising and price changes on cigarette consumption

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  • Theodore Keeler
  • Teh-wei Hu
  • Michael Ong
  • Hai-Yen Sung

Abstract

This paper provides an econometric analysis of the effects of cigarette price and advertising changes stemming from the United States Tobacco Settlement of 1998. This is done by estimation of a demand function for cigarettes, based on data from both before and after the Settlement. The model is estimated using monthly time series data for the period 1990-2000. Results show that the increase in cigarette prices stemming from the Settlement reduced per capita cigarette consumption in the USA by 8.3%. However, the cigarette companies also increased advertising in the years immediately preceding and following the Settlement. This study estimates that this increased advertising partially offsets the effects of the higher prices, increasing cigarette consumption by 2.7 to 4.7%, and hence blunting the effects of the price increase by 33-57%.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Keeler & Teh-wei Hu & Michael Ong & Hai-Yen Sung, 2004. "The US National Tobacco Settlement: the effects of advertising and price changes on cigarette consumption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1623-1629.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1623-1629
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000266829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David M. Cutler & Jonathan Gruber & Raymond S. Hartman & Mary Beth Landrum & Joseph P. Newhouse & Meredith B. Rosenthal, 2002. "The Economic impacts of the tobacco settlement," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-19.
    2. Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Tobacco at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Smoking Regulation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 193-212, Spring.
    3. Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei & Barnett, Paul G. & Manning, Willard G. & Sung, Hai-Yen, 1996. "Do cigarette producers price-discriminate by state? An empirical analysis of local cigarette pricing and taxation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 499-512, August.
    4. Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
    5. Barnett, Paul G. & Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei, 1995. "Oligopoly structure and the incidence of cigarette excise taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 457-470, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Capella, Michael L. & Webster, Cynthia & Kinard, Brian R., 2011. "A review of the effect of cigarette advertising," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 269-279.
    2. Caroline Elliott & Yingqi Wei & Pamela Lenton, 2010. "The Effect Of Government Policy On Tobacco Advertising Strategies," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 243-258, July.
    3. Björn Frank, 2005. "Ökonomische Argumente für publizistischen Wettbwerb," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(3), pages 64-72.
    4. Gallet Craig A, 2011. "Determinants of Tobacco Control Funding: Evidence from U.S. States," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, July.
    5. R. Duarte & J. Escario & J. Molina, 2014. "Are estimated peer effects on smoking robust? Evidence from adolescent students in Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 1167-1179, May.
    6. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A., 2007. "The Master Settlement Agreement and cigarette tax policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 431-438.

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