Testing for structural breaks in GARCH models
We study the ability of traditional diagnostic tests and LM and CUSUM structural break tests to detect a range of different types of breaks in GARCH models. We find that Wooldridge's (1990) robust LM tests for autocorrelation and ARCH have no power to detect structural breaks in GARCH models. However, CUSUM- and LM-based structural break tests have excellent size when the data is Gaussian, but the CUSUM tests tend to overreject even in quite large samples when returns have fat tails. However, the LM-based tests have approximately the correct size and exhibit impressive power to detect a range of breaks in the dynamics of conditional volatility. We apply these tests to a range of financial time series using returns starting only in 1990 and find that many GARCH models that pass standard specification tests fail the structural break tests.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAFE20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001.
"Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
- Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Multiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0202, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998.
"Evaluating GARCH models,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
292, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 May 1999.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995.
"Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
- Michael Dueker, 1995.
"Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility,"
1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
- Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
- repec:hal:journl:hal-00461067 is not listed on IDEAS
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Tom Doan, . "APBREAKTEST: RATS procedure to implement Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00006, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "APGRADIENTTEST: RATS procedure to perform Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test for GARCH/Maximum Likelihood," Statistical Software Components RTS00007, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394.
- Malik, Farooq, 2003. "Sudden changes in variance and volatility persistence in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 217-230, July.
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
- Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Peixe, Fernanda P.M., 2003. "Covariance Matrix Estimation And The Limiting Behavior Of The Overidentifying Restrictions Test In The Presence Of Neglected Structural Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 962-983, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:10:p:845-862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.