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Stock returns, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in world equity markets

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  • Ercan Balaban
  • Asli Bayar
  • Ozgur Berk Kan

Abstract

The paper tests four hypotheses at the same time using an autoregressive return-generating process and an asymmetric conditional variance specification, both also including deterministic day of the week dummies. The daily stock index returns from 19 countries are employed to test: (H1) predictable time variation in conditional volatility; (H2) asymmetry in volatility and leverage effect; (H3) effects of estimated volatility on returns; and (H4) day of the week effects on both returns and their volatility. Evidence is provided for predictable time varying daily volatility in all markets among which eight also exhibit a significant leverage effect. There is a significantly positive relationship between returns and their conditional volatility in only three countries. The nature of the day of the week effects on returns and their conditional volatility differs greatly among countries and across days. Thirteen countries exhibit seasonality in either mean returns (seven countries) or volatility (eight countries) or both (two countries). Each day is at least once reported to exhibit significant positive and negative effects in both mean and volatility with the exception that there is no negative effect on mean returns and no positive effect in volatility on Wednesdays.

Suggested Citation

  • Ercan Balaban & Asli Bayar & Ozgur Berk Kan, 2001. "Stock returns, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in world equity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 263-268.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:4:p:263-268
    DOI: 10.1080/135048501750104051
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Calendar Anomalies in an Emerging African Market: Evidence from the Ghana Stock Exchange," Discussion Paper Series 2006_13, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2006.
    2. Högholm, Kenneth & Knif, Johan, 2009. "The impact of portfolio aggregation on day-of-the-week effect: Evidence from Finland," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 67-79.
    3. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T. & Guerrero, David E., 2013. "Day-of-the-week effect on the VIX. A parsimonious representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 243-260.
    4. Denise R. Osborn & Christos S. Savva & Len Gill, 2008. "Periodic Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Stock Markets in Europe and the US," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(3), pages 307-325, Summer.
    5. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ricky Chee-Jiun Chia & Syed Azizi Wafa Syed Khalid Wafa, 2008. "Day-of-the-week effects in Selected East Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(5), pages 1-8.
    6. Aityan, Sergey K. & Ivanov-Schitz, Alexey K. & Izotov, Sergey S., 2010. "Time-shift asymmetric correlation analysis of global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 590-605, December.
    7. Charles, Amélie, 2010. "The day-of-the-week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 143-152, April.
    8. Murat Akbalik & K. Batu Tunay, 2016. "An Analysis Of Ramadan Effect By Gjr-Garch Model: Case Of Borsa Istanbul," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 593-612, December.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:5:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Al-Eid, Eid & Demouche, Nacer, 2016. "Generalized quasi-maximum likelihood inference for periodic conditionally heteroskedastic models," MPRA Paper 75770, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Dec 2016.
    11. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga, 2016. "Trading session effects on stock returns and their conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence from a European Union accession country," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 446(C), pages 264-271.

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