IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reihed/v59y2018i2d10.1007_s11162-017-9459-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gloria Crisp

    (Oregon State University)

  • Erin Doran

    (Iowa State University)

  • Nicole A. Salis Reyes

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

Abstract

This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008–2009 and 2014–2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable selection in modeling graduation rates. Evidence suggests that graduation rates can be predicted by religious affiliation, proportion of students enrolled full-time, socioeconomic status of the student body, enrollment size and institutional revenue and expenditures. Findings also demonstrate that relatively fewer variables predict institutional graduation rates for Latina/o and African American students at 4-year BAIs. We conclude with implications for policy and key recommendations for research focused on 4-year BAIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gloria Crisp & Erin Doran & Nicole A. Salis Reyes, 2018. "Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 59(2), pages 133-155, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reihed:v:59:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11162-017-9459-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11162-017-9459-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11162-017-9459-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11162-017-9459-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvin A. Titus, 2006. "Understanding the Influence of the Financial Context of Institutions on Student Persistence at Four-Year Colleges and Universities," The Journal of Higher Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 77(2), pages 353-375, March.
    2. Webber, Douglas A. & Ehrenberg, Ronald G., 2010. "Do expenditures other than instructional expenditures affect graduation and persistence rates in American higher education?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 947-958, December.
    3. Caroline M. Hoxby, 2009. "The Changing Selectivity of American Colleges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 95-118, Fall.
    4. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
    5. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sinjini Mitra & Gerard Beenen, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Learning Styles and Motivational Factors in Traditional and Online Sections of a Business Course," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Jeongeun Kim & Molly Ott & Lindsey Dippold, 2020. "University and Department Influences on Scientists’ Occupational Outcomes," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(2), pages 197-228, March.
    3. Sinjini Mitra, 2023. "How Are Students Learning in a Business Statistics Course? Evidence from Both Direct and Indirect Assessment," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 95-103, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cécile Bonneau, 2020. "The Concentration of investment in education in the US (1970-2018)," Working Papers halshs-02875965, HAL.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Ann M. Gansemer-Topf & Jillian Downey & Katherine Thompson & Ulrike Genschel, 2018. "Did the Recession Impact Student Success? Relationships of Finances, Staffing and Institutional Type on Retention," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 59(2), pages 174-197, March.
    4. Smith, Jonathan & Pender, Matea & Howell, Jessica, 2013. "The full extent of student-college academic undermatch," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 247-261.
    5. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures for gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i05).
    6. Cécile Bonneau, 2020. "The Concentration of investment in education in the US (1970-2018)," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-02875965, HAL.
    7. Amanda L. Griffith & Kevin N. Rask, 2016. "The Effect Of Institutional Expenditures On Employment Outcomes And Earnings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1931-1945, October.
    8. John Bound & Michael F. Lovenheim & Sarah Turner, 2012. "Increasing Time to Baccalaureate Degree in the United States," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 375-424, September.
    9. Abe, Ryosuke & Kato, Hironori, 2017. "What led to the establishment of a rail-oriented city? Determinants of urban rail supply in Tokyo, Japan, 1950–2010," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 72-79.
    10. J. Mark Ramseyer & Eric Rasmusen, 2013. "Lowering the Bar to Raise the Bar: Licensing Difficulty and Attorney Quality in Japan," Working Papers 2013-12, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    11. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. John Bound & Michael F. Lovenheim & Sarah Turner, 2010. "Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 129-157, July.
    13. Daniel C. Hickman & Andrew G. Meyer, 2017. "Does Athletic Success Influence Persistence At Higher Education Institutions? New Evidence Using Panel Data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 658-676, October.
    14. Srdelić, Leonarda & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "International trade and economic growth in Croatia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 240-258.
    15. Meier, Volker & Schiopu, Ioana, 2020. "Enrollment expansion and quality differentiation across higher education systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 43-53.
    16. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    17. Eaton, C. & Kulkarni, K. & Birgeneau, Robert & Brady, Henry & Hout, Michael, 2017. "AFFORDING THE DREAM: Student Debt and State Need-Based Grant Aid for Public University Students," University of California at Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education qt24j8945b, Center for Studies in Higher Education, UC Berkeley.
    18. Mira Fischer & Patrick Kampkötter, 2017. "Effects of German Universities' Excellence Initiative on Ability Sorting of Students and Perceptions of Educational Quality," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 173(4), pages 662-687, December.
    19. Nelson, Kelly P. & Parton, Lee C. & Brown, Zachary S., 2022. "Biofuels policy and innovation impacts: Evidence from biofuels and agricultural patent indicators," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reihed:v:59:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11162-017-9459-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.