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Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components

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  • Brian Bratten

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Monika Causholli

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Urooj Khan

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper examines whether fair value adjustments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) predict future bank performance. It also examines whether the reliability of these estimates affects their predictive value. Using a sample of bank holding companies, we find that fair value adjustments included in OCI can predict earnings both 1 and 2 years ahead. However, not all fair value-related unrealized gains and losses included in OCI have similar implications. While net unrealized gains and losses on available-for-sale securities are positively associated with future earnings, net unrealized gains and losses on derivative contracts classified as cash flow hedges are negatively associated with future earnings. We also find that reliable measurement of fair values enhances predictive value. Finally, we show that fair value adjustments recorded in OCI during the 2007–2009 financial crisis predicted future profitability, contradicting criticism that fair value accounting forced banks to record excessive downward adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Bratten & Monika Causholli & Urooj Khan, 2016. "Usefulness of fair values for predicting banks’ future earnings: evidence from other comprehensive income and its components," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 280-315, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:21:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-015-9346-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-015-9346-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayres, Douglas & Huang, Xuerong (Sharon) & Myring, Mark, 2017. "Fair value accounting and analyst forecast accuracy," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-70.
    2. Sticca, Ralph Melles & Nakao, Silvio Hiroshi, 2019. "Hedge accounting choice as exchange loss avoidance under financial crisis: Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Hui Zhou, 2023. "Hedging Performance and Fair-Value Financial Reporting: Evidence from Bank Holding Companies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Joshua Anderson & Yiting Cao & Edward J. Riedl & Scarlett Xiaotong Song, 2023. "Other comprehensive income, its components, and analysts’ forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 792-826, June.
    5. Chakravarty, Sugato & Ray, Rina, 2020. "On short-term institutional trading skill, behavioral biases, and liquidity need," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Makar, Stephen & Wang, Li & Whyte, Ann Marie, 2018. "Interest rate derivatives use in banking: Market pricing implications of cash flow hedges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 113-126.
    7. Ehalaiye, Dimu & Tippett, Mark & van Zijl, Tony, 2017. "The predictive value of bank fair values," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 111-127.
    8. Artur Sajnóg & Anna Rogoziñska-Pawe³czyk, 2022. "Executive compensation and the financial performance of Polish listed companies from the corporate governance perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 459-480, June.
    9. Johannes Thesing & Patrick Velte, 2021. "Do fair value measurements affect accounting-based earnings quality? A literature review with a focus on corporate governance as moderator," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(7), pages 965-1004, September.
    10. Kathryn E. Easterday & Pradyot K. Sen, 2023. "Another look at the dividend-price relationship in the accounting valuation framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 879-925, October.
    11. Adul Aziz Saymeh & Ayman Mansour Khalaf ALkhazaleh* & Eman Marwan Musallam, 2019. "The Impact of Other Comprehensive Income Items on Financial Performance: Case of Jordanian Commercial Banks," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(4), pages 881-893, 04-2019.
    12. Assaf Bar‐Hod & Ester Chen & Ilanit Gavious, 2021. "The economic consequences of fair value disclosures: a manifestation of the buried facts doctrine," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1363-1413, April.
    13. Hairston, Stephanie A. & Brooks, Marcus R., 2019. "Derivative accounting and financial reporting quality: A review of the literature," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 81-94.
    14. Yan Wang & Yuan George Shan & Zhuqian He & Changheng Zhao, 2022. "Other comprehensive income, corporate governance, and firm performance in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 262-271, January.
    15. Campbell, John L. & Mauler, Landon M. & Pierce, Spencer R., 2019. "A review of derivatives research in accounting and suggestions for future work," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 44-60.
    16. Renes, S., 2020. "When Debit=Credit. The balance constraint in bookkeeping, its causes and consequences for accounting," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2020-005-FA, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    17. Joel Ubaka Uyanna & Tesleem Adeyemi & Ibrahim Yusuf, 2017. "Fair Value Accounting and Earnings Predictability of Listed Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(11), pages 289-297, 11-2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings; Other comprehensive income; Fair value; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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