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Assessing the influence of climate change characteristics on the rainfall duration of Turkey

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  • Nihal Ata Tutkun

    (Hacettepe University)

  • Gamze Özel

    (Hacettepe University)

Abstract

Climate change alters the rainfall patterns and causes insufficient rainfalls and irregular rainfall periods in Turkey. The reduction in rainfalls decreases the water resources in Turkey, and drought seems to be an inescapable end. This paper proposes a log-logistic accelerated failure time model with frailty to determine influence of some covariates. For this aim, we use the rainfall data from 70 meteorological stations of Turkey during 2012–2013. The survival models are compared by means of this data as a risk assessment tool in time to wet season and rainfall probability estimations. The data present that the log-logistic accelerated model is more suitable than the other survival models. The log-logistic accelerated model results show that duration time of rainfall depends on the temperature and the ratio of forest area.

Suggested Citation

  • Nihal Ata Tutkun & Gamze Özel, 2016. "Assessing the influence of climate change characteristics on the rainfall duration of Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2265-2277, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2539-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2539-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto G. Gutierrez, 2002. "Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(1), pages 22-44, February.
    2. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    3. Jason Evans, 2009. "21st century climate change in the Middle East," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 417-432, February.
    4. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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