IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i4d10.1007_s11069-024-06987-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Marijn J. Ton

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Hans de Moel

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Jens A. de Bruijn

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Lena Reimann

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Wouter J. W. Botzen

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University)

  • Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the impact of natural hazards on internal migration in the United States (US). The analysis uses Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax records and analyzes different versions of a gravity model to assess the impact of economic damage caused by natural hazards on migration flows between counties. We find that natural hazards in the origin county are associated to larger outflows, with hurricanes exhibiting the most substantial impact on migration, followed by floodings and severe storms. These results emphasize the need for migration research that distinguishes between various types of hazards. Furthermore, we extend the gravity model to investigate whether people tend to relocate to relatively nearby areas in response to natural hazards, an established phenomenon in existing literature. For floods and severe storms, the analysis demonstrates that migration flows to nearby counties are comparatively larger than to distant counties. These findings may be concerning, as it implies that individuals could still be at a high risk of experiencing future disasters. Additionally, we provide several robustness checks to investigate to what extent our results are driven by extreme events in the dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Marijn J. Ton & Hans de Moel & Jens A. de Bruijn & Lena Reimann & Wouter J. W. Botzen & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2025. "Economic damage from natural hazards and internal migration in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4985-5005, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06987-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06987-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacques Poot & Omoniyi Alimi & Michael P. Cameron & David C. Maré, 2016. "The gravity model of migration: the successful comeback of an ageing superstar in regional science," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 36, pages 63-86.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    3. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    4. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
    5. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    6. Jeffrey Groen & Anne Polivka, 2010. "Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(4), pages 821-844, November.
    7. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.
    8. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    9. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    10. Boustan, Leah Platt & Kahn, Matthew E. & Rhode, Paul W. & Yanguas, Maria Lucia, 2020. "The effect of natural disasters on economic activity in US counties: A century of data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Ouattara, B. & Strobl, E., 2014. "Hurricane strikes and local migration in US coastal counties," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 17-20.
    12. Katherine Curtis & Elizabeth Fussell & Jack DeWaard, 2015. "Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    13. Mathew E. Hauer, 2017. "Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 321-325, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81, April.
    2. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    3. Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
    4. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    7. Lesly Cassin & Aurélie Méjean & Stéphane Zuber, 2023. "Go where the wind does not blow: Climate damages heterogeneity and future migrations," Working Papers 2023.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    8. Cosimo Beverelli, 2022. "Pull factors for migration: The impact of migrant integration policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 171-191, March.
    9. Miriam Manchin & Alex Newnham & Elena Nikolova, 2025. "Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration," Development Working Papers 503, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    11. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    12. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Johannes Bollen, 2018. "Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle," CPB Discussion Paper 385, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Zovanga L Kone & Maggie Y Liu & Aaditya Mattoo & Caglar Ozden & Siddharth Sharma, 2018. "Internal borders and migration in India," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 729-759.
    15. Carlier, Guillaume & Dupuy, Arnaud & Galichon, Alfred & Sun, Yifei, 2021. "SISTA: Learning Optimal Transport Costs under Sparsity Constraints," IZA Discussion Papers 14397, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2022. "The Log of Gravity at 15," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(3), pages 423-437, September.
    17. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    18. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    19. Honorata Bogusz, 2021. "Causes of the spatially uneven outflow of Warsaw inhabitants to the city’s suburbs: an economic analysis of the problem," Working Papers 2021-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    20. Jack DeWaard & Janna Johnson & Stephan Whitaker, 2019. "Internal migration in the United States: A comprehensive comparative assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(33), pages 953-1006.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06987-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.