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Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

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  • Ayami Hayashi
  • Keigo Akimoto
  • Toshimasa Tomoda
  • Masanobu Kii

Abstract

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Ayami Hayashi & Keigo Akimoto & Toshimasa Tomoda & Masanobu Kii, 2013. "Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 591-618, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:5:p:591-618
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9377-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855, December.
    2. Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Homma, Takashi & Oda, Junichiro & Nagashima, Miyuki & Kii, Masanobu, 2010. "Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country, sector, and cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3384-3393, July.
    3. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Yasuhide Nakagami & Keigo Akimoto, 2018. "Changes in terrestrial water stress and contributions of major factors under temperature rise constraint scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 1179-1205, December.
    2. Nechifor, Victor, 2018. "Global economic and food security impacts of demand-driven water scarcity," Conference papers 332931, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. David O'Connor & James Ford, 2014. "Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Žiga Malek & Peter H. Verburg, 2018. "Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 821-837, August.
    5. Vasilenko, Alexandr & Ulman, Miloš, 2015. "Concept of Horticulture Ambient Intelligence System," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(4), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Bisrat Ayalew Yifru & Min-Gyu Kim & Jeong-Woo Lee & Il-Hwan Kim & Sun-Woo Chang & Il-Moon Chung, 2021. "Water Storage in Dry Riverbeds of Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: Overview, Challenges, and Prospects of Sand Dam Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, May.

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