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Energy-related climate change mitigation in Brazil: Potential, abatement costs and associated policies

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  • Borba, Bruno S.M.C.
  • Lucena, André F.P.
  • Rathmann, Régis
  • Costa, Isabella V.L.
  • Nogueira, Larissa P.P.
  • Rochedo, Pedro R.R.
  • Castelo Branco, David A.
  • Júnior, Mauricio F.H.
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Schaeffer, Roberto

Abstract

This paper estimates the potential for energy-related greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in Brazil, their abatement costs and proposes a number of policies to achieve these reductions. The Brazilian energy system is very peculiar as renewable energy accounts for some 45% of total primary energy and 85% of electricity production. The following sectors are covered in this paper: industry, transports and petroleum sector. Compared to a business-as-usual reference scenario, results show a potential to reduce future energy-related GHG emissions by 27% in 2030. However, in spite of that, the mitigation potential identified here is not large enough, in absolute terms, to reduce energy-related GHG emissions below the current level in Brazil by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Borba, Bruno S.M.C. & Lucena, André F.P. & Rathmann, Régis & Costa, Isabella V.L. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Castelo Branco, David A. & Júnior, Mauricio F.H. & Szklo, Alexandre &, 2012. "Energy-related climate change mitigation in Brazil: Potential, abatement costs and associated policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 430-441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:49:y:2012:i:c:p:430-441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.040
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    4. Postic, Sebastien & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2017. "Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 170-184.
    5. de Aguiar, Thereza R.S. & Freire, Fatima de Souza, 2017. "Shifts in modes of governance and sustainable development in the Brazilian oil sector," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 701-710.
    6. Mendes, Pietro A.S. & Hall, Jeremy & Matos, Stelvia & Silvestre, Bruno, 2014. "Reforming Brazil׳s offshore oil and gas safety regulatory framework: Lessons from Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 443-453.
    7. Juárez, Alberto Aquino & Araújo, Alex Maurício & Rohatgi, Janardan Singh & de Oliveira Filho, Oyama Douglas Queiroz, 2014. "Development of the wind power in Brazil: Political, social and technical issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 828-834.
    8. Pinto, Raphael Guimarães D. & Szklo, Alexandre S. & Rathmann, Regis, 2018. "CO2 emissions mitigation strategy in the Brazilian iron and steel sector–From structural to intensity effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 380-393.
    9. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Fragkiadakis, Kostas & Paroussos, Leonidas & Pierfederici, Roberta & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Iyer, Gokul & He, Chen-Min & Oshiro, Ken, 2018. "Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 462-473.
    10. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    11. Liu, Liwei & Sun, Xiaoru & Chen, Chuxiang & Zhao, Erdong, 2016. "How will auctioning impact on the carbon emission abatement cost of electric power generation sector in China?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 594-609.
    12. Köberle, Alexandre C. & Garaffa, Rafael & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Rochedo, Pedro & Lucena, André F.P. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2018. "Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 689-700.
    13. Manfred Lenzen & Roberto Schaeffer & Jonas Karstensen & Glen Peters, 2013. "Drivers of change in Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 815-824, December.

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