IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v74y2017icp522-537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Tianming
  • Shen, Lei
  • Shen, Ming
  • Liu, Litao
  • Chen, Fengnan
  • Gao, Li

Abstract

Previous studies have estimated emissions from China's cement industry for some specific periods, but a trend analysis of historical emissions has not yet been carried out. Based on changes in clinker quality and developments in energy-saving technologies of different clinker kilns, we calculated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to cement production in China for the continuous period from 1980 to 2014. Our analysis showed that total CO2 emissions from cement production in China were 1270.55 Mt in 2014, which is 18 times higher than that in 1980. There was a slight reduction in the share of emissions from fuel consumption, while the percentage of process emissions rose at a stable rate. The cement emission factor fell sharply from 852.12kg/t in 1980 to 513.15kg/t in 2014. Two scenarios were considered to predict future emissions, namely a baseline scenario (BS) and a best practice scenario (BPS). We found that CO2 emissions could be reduced to 856.62–957.91 Mt in 2020, which corresponds to a cement output of 1.86 billion tons. This implies that, by 2020, clinker and cement emission factors will fall to 789.11–840.618kg/t and 460.55–513.15kg/t, respectively. By 2020, energy efficiency improvements will be the main driver of emission reductions. Our projections also indicated that emission reductions resulting from process improvements would only account for 1.48% of total direct emissions, even under the BPS scenario. Thus, we suggest that the development of alternative industrial byproducts and fuels, substituting for natural resources, should be a main focus of future innovation efforts toward a sustainable cement industry in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Tianming & Shen, Lei & Shen, Ming & Liu, Litao & Chen, Fengnan & Gao, Li, 2017. "Evolution and projection of CO2 emissions for China's cement industry from 1980 to 2020," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 522-537.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:522-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117302113
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Choi, Yongrok & Zhang, Ning & Zhou, P., 2012. "Efficiency and abatement costs of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: A slacks-based efficiency measure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 198-208.
    2. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    3. Shen, Lei & Gao, Tianming & Zhao, Jianan & Wang, Limao & Wang, Lan & Liu, Litao & Chen, Fengnan & Xue, Jingjing, 2014. "Factory-level measurements on CO2 emission factors of cement production in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 337-349.
    4. Pardo, Nicolás & Moya, José Antonio & Mercier, Arnaud, 2011. "Prospective on the energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the EU cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3244-3254.
    5. Cui, Xiaowei & Hong, Jinglan & Gao, Mingming, 2012. "Environmental impact assessment of three coal-based electricity generation scenarios in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 952-959.
    6. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fleiter, Tobias & Fan, Ying & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2014. "CO2 emissions reduction potential in China’s cement industry compared to IEA’s Cement Technology Roadmap up to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 592-602.
    7. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fleiter, Tobias & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Fan, Ying, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 821-832.
    8. Madlool, N.A. & Saidur, R. & Hossain, M.S. & Rahim, N.A., 2011. "A critical review on energy use and savings in the cement industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 2042-2060, May.
    9. Ke, Jing & McNeil, Michael & Price, Lynn & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Zhou, Nan, 2013. "Estimation of CO2 emissions from China’s cement production: Methodologies and uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 172-181.
    10. Ali, M.B. & Saidur, R. & Hossain, M.S., 2011. "A review on emission analysis in cement industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2252-2261, June.
    11. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Menke, Christoph & Therdyothin, Apichit, 2010. "The use of conservation supply curves in energy policy and economic analysis: The case study of Thai cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 392-405, January.
    12. Liu, Feng & Ross, Marc & Wang, Shumao, 1995. "Energy efficiency of China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 669-681.
    13. Ke, Jing & Zheng, Nina & Fridley, David & Price, Lynn & Zhou, Nan, 2012. "Potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 739-751.
    14. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Price, Lynn & Lin, Elina, 2012. "Emerging energy-efficiency and CO2 emission-reduction technologies for cement and concrete production: A technical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6220-6238.
    15. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    16. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Price, Lynn & Lu, Hongyou & Lan, Wang, 2010. "Analysis of energy-efficiency opportunities for the cement industry in Shandong Province, China: A case study of 16 cement plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3461-3473.
    17. Shen, Weiguo & Cao, Liu & Li, Qiu & Zhang, Wensheng & Wang, Guiming & Li, Chaochao, 2015. "Quantifying CO2 emissions from China’s cement industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1004-1012.
    18. Aranda Usón, Alfonso & López-Sabirón, Ana M. & Ferreira, Germán & Llera Sastresa, Eva, 2013. "Uses of alternative fuels and raw materials in the cement industry as sustainable waste management options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 242-260.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    2. Zhang, Puwei & You, Jianxin & Jia, Guangshe & Chen, Jindao & Yu, Anyu, 2018. "Estimation of carbon efficiency decomposition in materials and potential material savings for China's construction industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 148-159.
    3. Fahim Huseien, Ghasan & Mirza, Jahangir & Ismail, Mohammad & Ghoshal, S.K. & Abdulameer Hussein, Ahmed, 2017. "Geopolymer mortars as sustainable repair material: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 54-74.
    4. Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen, 2019. "A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1343-1362, December.
    5. Luo, Zongwei & Dubey, Rameshwar & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Childe, Stephen J. & Papadopoulos, Thanos & Hazen, Benjamin & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Sustainable production framework for cement manufacturing firms: A behavioural perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 495-502.
    6. Feng Dong & Yifei Hua & Bolin Yu, 2018. "Peak Carbon Emissions in China: Status, Key Factors and Countermeasures—A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(8), pages 1-34, August.
    7. Angela Neves & Radu Godina & Susana G. Azevedo & Carina Pimentel & João C.O. Matias, 2019. "The Potential of Industrial Symbiosis: Case Analysis and Main Drivers and Barriers to Its Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(24), pages 1-68, December.
    8. Liu, Shangwei & Tian, Xin & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Weiqiang & Wang, Yafei, 2018. "How the transitions in iron and steel and construction material industries impact China’s CO2 emissions: Comprehensive analysis from an inter-sector linked perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 64-75.
    9. Lee, Boreum & Kim, Hyunwoo & Lee, Hyunjun & Byun, Manhee & Won, Wangyun & Lim, Hankwon, 2020. "Technical and economic feasibility under uncertainty for methane dry reforming of coke oven gas as simultaneous H2 production and CO2 utilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Cui, Duo & Deng, Zhu & Liu, Zhu, 2019. "China’s non-fossil fuel CO2 emissions from industrial processes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    11. Davis, Matthew & Ahiduzzaman, Md. & Kumar, Amit, 2018. "How will Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions change by 2050? A disaggregated analysis of past and future greenhouse gas emissions using bottom-up energy modelling and Sankey diagrams," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 754-786.
    12. Ofosu-Adarkwa, Jeffrey & Xie, Naiming & Javed, Saad Ahmed, 2020. "Forecasting CO2 emissions of China's cement industry using a hybrid Verhulst-GM(1,N) model and emissions' technical conversion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shaohui & Worrell, Ernst & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2015. "Evaluating co-benefits of energy efficiency and air pollution abatement in China’s cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 192-213.
    2. Ofosu-Adarkwa, Jeffrey & Xie, Naiming & Javed, Saad Ahmed, 2020. "Forecasting CO2 emissions of China's cement industry using a hybrid Verhulst-GM(1,N) model and emissions' technical conversion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Shen, Weiguo & Liu, Yi & Yan, Bilan & Wang, Jing & He, Pengtao & Zhou, Congcong & Huo, Xujia & Zhang, Wuzong & Xu, Gelong & Ding, Qingjun, 2017. "Cement industry of China: Driving force, environment impact and sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 618-628.
    4. Liu, Xuewei & Yuan, Zengwei & Xu, Yuan & Jiang, Songyan, 2017. "Greening cement in China: A cost-effective roadmap," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 233-244.
    5. Cai, Bofeng & Wang, Jinnan & He, Jie & Geng, Yong, 2016. "Evaluating CO2 emission performance in China’s cement industry: An enterprise perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 191-200.
    6. Shen, Weiguo & Cao, Liu & Li, Qiu & Zhang, Wensheng & Wang, Guiming & Li, Chaochao, 2015. "Quantifying CO2 emissions from China’s cement industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1004-1012.
    7. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Chang, Yi-Lin & Fleiter, Tobias, 2016. "A critical analysis of energy efficiency improvement potentials in Taiwan's cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 14-26.
    8. Shan, Yuli & Liu, Zhu & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "CO2 emissions from China’s lime industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 245-252.
    9. Li, Yuan & Zhu, Lei, 2014. "Cost of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction in China’s iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 603-616.
    10. Yang, Lisha & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Carbon dioxide-emission in China׳s power industry: Evidence and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 258-267.
    11. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zihan, 2016. "Carbon emissions in China׳s cement industry: A sector and policy analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1387-1394.
    12. Li, Jia & Tharakan, Pradeep & Macdonald, Douglas & Liang, Xi, 2013. "Technological, economic and financial prospects of carbon dioxide capture in the cement industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1377-1387.
    13. Aranda Usón, Alfonso & López-Sabirón, Ana M. & Ferreira, Germán & Llera Sastresa, Eva, 2013. "Uses of alternative fuels and raw materials in the cement industry as sustainable waste management options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 242-260.
    14. Talaei, Alireza & Pier, David & Iyer, Aishwarya V. & Ahiduzzaman, Md & Kumar, Amit, 2019. "Assessment of long-term energy efficiency improvement and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation options for the cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1051-1066.
    15. Huh, Sung-Yoon & Lee, Hyejin & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Donghyun & Jang, Jinyoung, 2018. "Inter-fuel substitution path analysis of the korea cement industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4091-4099.
    16. Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen, 2019. "A preliminary calculation of cement carbon dioxide in China from 1949 to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1343-1362, December.
    17. Lin, Hsin-Chiu & Chan, David Yih-Liang & Lin, Wei-Chun & Hsu, Chung-Hsuan & Hong, Gui-Bing, 2014. "Status of energy conservation in Taiwan's pulp and paper industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 680-685.
    18. Shao, Shuai & Liu, Jianghua & Geng, Yong & Miao, Zhuang & Yang, Yingchun, 2016. "Uncovering driving factors of carbon emissions from China’s mining sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 220-238.
    19. Oh, Da-Young & Noguchi, Takafumi & Kitagaki, Ryoma & Park, Won-Jun, 2014. "CO2 emission reduction by reuse of building material waste in the Japanese cement industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 796-810.
    20. Ansari, Nastaran & Seifi, Abbas, 2013. "A system dynamics model for analyzing energy consumption and CO2 emission in Iranian cement industry under various production and export scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-89.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Cement industry; Emission factor; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:522-537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.