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Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050

Author

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  • Junxiao Wei

    (China University of Geosciences (Beijing))

  • Kuang Cen

    (China University of Geosciences (Beijing))

  • Yuanbo Geng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Much attention is being paid toward reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with China’s cement production. However, as part of China’s international commitment to reduce carbon intensity, the inter-annual changes and driving forces behind CO2 emissions must be determined for the 2001–2015 period, along with the projection of the cement-related CO2 emissions until 2030. The objective of this article is to analyze the CO2 emission factors (EFs) and CO2 emissions from 2001 to 2015, project CO2 emission scenarios of China’s cement industry until 2030, and propose a low-carbon roadmap for the global cement industry by 2050 based on a series of practical reduction measurements performed by China. The results of our study indicate that CO2 EFs in 2015 were 55.36% lower than those in 2001, but CO2 emissions were 72.90% higher than those in 2001. The main reason for the decreasing total active CO2 EFs are policies enacted by the Chinese government regarding the removal of excess capacity and elimination of backward capacity as well as the technological innovation and ongoing annual reductions in the clinker-to-cement ratio (C/CR). Meanwhile, the driving force behind the increased cement-related CO2 emissions was the substantial growth in cement output. Scenarios regarding CO2 emissions by 2030 show an uncertainty regarding CO2 emissions, ranging between 3.51 and 11.70%, and CO2 EFs are expected to be 59–69% lower than those in 2005. CO2 emissions from the global cement industry from 2020 to 2050 based on CO2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS); utilization of alternative raw materials (ARMs) and alternative fossil fuels (AFFs); and technological innovation account for 39.3, 29.3, 24.7, and 6.7% of the CO2 reduction capability, respectively. It is possible to reduce ~ 1524 Mt of CO2, and the global optimal emissions by 2050 are ~ 2082 Mt of CO2.

Suggested Citation

  • Junxiao Wei & Kuang Cen & Yuanbo Geng, 2019. "Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 301-328, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:24:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11027-018-9813-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-018-9813-0
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lukáš Fiala & Michaela Petříková & Wei-Ting Lin & Luboš Podolka & Robert Černý, 2019. "Self-Heating Ability of Geopolymers Enhanced by Carbon Black Admixtures at Different Voltage Loads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Tan, Chang & Yu, Xiang & Guan, Yuru, 2022. "A technology-driven pathway to net-zero carbon emissions for China's cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    4. Doh Dinga, Christian & Wen, Zongguo, 2022. "Many-objective optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction under uncertainty: A case study in China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    5. Dinga, Christian Doh & Wen, Zongguo, 2022. "China's green deal: Can China's cement industry achieve carbon neutral emissions by 2060?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    Keywords

    CO2 emission; CO2 reduction; Cement; Emission factor (EF);
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