IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i5d10.1007_s10584-025-03939-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How great will the demand for critical minerals be to meet the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals? Insights from various technology deployment scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ayami Hayashi

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Keigo Akimoto

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

Abstract

Smooth deployment of clean energy technologies is essential to achieving the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals of the Paris Agreement. However, there are growing concerns that the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies will significantly increase the demand for critical minerals, hindering their stable procurement and posing risks to energy systems transition. We analyze various technology deployment scenarios to meet the goals and estimate the associated global demand for critical minerals. The estimated demand is also compared to the supply capacity projected by experts. Our analysis indicates that demand for lithium, cobalt, and neodymium would considerably exceed the supply capacity by 2040, in scenarios where battery electric vehicles dominate new vehicle sales and variable renewable energy such as solar photovoltaics and wind power are heavily deployed. On the other hand, demand would be lower than the supply capacity, or even if the demand exceeds the supply capacity, the excess would be very small, in scenarios where various technologies, including plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric vehicles and carbon dioxide removal to offset residual emissions, are used. These results implicate that a wide range of technology applications should be considered to advance the transition of energy systems while mitigating concerns about supply shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Keigo Akimoto, 2025. "How great will the demand for critical minerals be to meet the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals? Insights from various technology deployment scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03939-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03939-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-025-03939-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-025-03939-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03939-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.