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How great will the demand for critical minerals be to meet the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals? Insights from various technology deployment scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ayami Hayashi

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Keigo Akimoto

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

Abstract

Smooth deployment of clean energy technologies is essential to achieving the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals of the Paris Agreement. However, there are growing concerns that the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies will significantly increase the demand for critical minerals, hindering their stable procurement and posing risks to energy systems transition. We analyze various technology deployment scenarios to meet the goals and estimate the associated global demand for critical minerals. The estimated demand is also compared to the supply capacity projected by experts. Our analysis indicates that demand for lithium, cobalt, and neodymium would considerably exceed the supply capacity by 2040, in scenarios where battery electric vehicles dominate new vehicle sales and variable renewable energy such as solar photovoltaics and wind power are heavily deployed. On the other hand, demand would be lower than the supply capacity, or even if the demand exceeds the supply capacity, the excess would be very small, in scenarios where various technologies, including plug-in hybrid and hybrid electric vehicles and carbon dioxide removal to offset residual emissions, are used. These results implicate that a wide range of technology applications should be considered to advance the transition of energy systems while mitigating concerns about supply shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Keigo Akimoto, 2025. "How great will the demand for critical minerals be to meet the 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals? Insights from various technology deployment scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-025-03939-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03939-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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