The impact of future power generation on cement demand: an international and regional assessment based on climate scenarios

Concrete is the most widely used manmade material in the world with an annual production of about 10 billion tons globally. Its use outpaces that of historically important materials such as wood or stone in modern urbanism. Concrete is closely tied to the energy transition. As a structural material, concrete is used in multiple sectors, including energy. Because the concrete content of a power plant varies depending on the technology, the energy transition is expected to impact future demand for concrete. At the same time, concrete production is known to be highly polluting as one of its major components is cement, produced by an industry that is one of the main emitters of carbon dioxide worldwide. This dual aspect explains the aim of this study: understanding concrete (and therefore cement) demand under the energy transition policies described in the IEA's 2017 Energy Transition Policy (ETP) report and quantifying CO2 emissions from cement production for the energy sector. Based on a simple model, the study is looks at global and regional levels to take into account potential local disparities. The results demonstrate that the decarbonization of the power sector will have a limited impact on global cement demand, but that it could be more challenging for some regions where the new power production mix would require large concrete structures. This model could be a useful decision-making tool in assessing the relative impact of any public energy transition scenarios on raw materials such as cement at the highest level of disaggregation, as well as enabling better sub-sectorial screening.