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Where Does the Minimum Wage Bite Hardest in California?

Author

Listed:
  • William E. Even

    (Miami University)

  • David A. Macpherson

    (Trinity University)

Abstract

This study uses employment data on California county-industry pairs (CIPs) between 1990 and 2016 to test whether minimum wage increases caused employment growth to slow most in the CIPs with a large share of low wage workers. Evidence supports the hypothesis, and we use the estimates to simulate the effect of a 10% increase in the minimum wage. The simulations suggest that a 10% increase could cause a 3.4% employment loss in the average CIP in California. The job loss is projected to be concentrated in two industries: accommodation and food services, and retail. While the most populated counties of California are expected to incur the largest employment loss in terms of the number of workers, the smaller counties generally experience a larger percentage point loss in employment due to the lower wages and the greater number of workers that would be affected by the minimum wage hike. Moreover, there is substantial variation across counties in terms of the percentage of jobs lost within a given industry.

Suggested Citation

  • William E. Even & David A. Macpherson, 2019. "Where Does the Minimum Wage Bite Hardest in California?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jlabre:v:40:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s12122-018-9281-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s12122-018-9281-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Loukas Karabarbounis & Jeremy Lise & Anusha Nath, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities," Working Papers 793, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Winters, John V., 2022. "Minimum Wages and Restaurant Employment for Teens and Adults in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas," IZA Discussion Papers 15499, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Jonathan E. Leightner & Eric Jenkins, 2024. "Inflation’s Reduction of the Real Minimum Wage and Unemployment in the USA: 1987 to 2021," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(3), pages 126-137, September.
    4. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    5. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2021. "Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?," NBER Working Papers 28388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Employment; California; Labor demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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