IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jeicoo/v18y2023i4d10.1007_s11403-023-00391-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Home sweet home, how money laundering pollutes the real estate market: an agent based model

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaella Barone

    (University of Salento
    Bocconi University)

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyse the role of the real estate market as a dirty money laundering channel for organized crime in Italy. We contribute to the economic literature on house price determinants, providing for the first time an agent-based model to evaluate the impact of money laundering on the amount and the prices of transactions in the Italian residential real estate market. To this purpose, we collected and processed data from the Real Estate Market Observatory of the Italian Revenue Agency, the Italian National Statistical Institute and the European Central Bank for the period 2006–2020. Then, we enriched the data set including for each province if it is a tourist destination, a university site and the corresponding crime rate. Using AgentPy, we built the model that consists of one agent—that can be a buyer (honest or criminal) and a seller—, banks, the real estate properties, and the environment. Buyers and sellers interact randomly according to the Italian market real estate purchase frequencies. We show a reverse relationship between the crime rate index and the percentage of criminal transaction out of the total. Moreover, the average price is higher for criminal transactions with a growing trend as the number of criminals increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaella Barone, 2023. "Home sweet home, how money laundering pollutes the real estate market: an agent based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(4), pages 779-806, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:18:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11403-023-00391-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11403-023-00391-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11403-023-00391-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11403-023-00391-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petrus C. van Duyne & Melvin R.J. Soudijn, 2009. "Hot money, hot stones and hot air: crime‐money threat, real estate and real concern," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 173-188, May.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    3. John Geanakoplos & Robert Axtell & J. Doyne Farmer & Peter Howitt & Benjamin Conlee & Jonathan Goldstein & Matthew Hendrey & Nathan M. Palmer & Chun-Yi Yang, 2012. "Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 53-58, May.
    4. Donato Masciandaro, 1999. "Money Laundering: the Economics of Regulation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 225-240, May.
    5. Mohammed Ahmad Naheem, 2017. "Money laundering and illicit flows from China – the real estate problem," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 20(1), pages 15-26, January.
    6. Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Arzu Uluc & J Doyne Farmer, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 386-432.
    7. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2015. "Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 257-275.
    8. Alberto Russo, 2017. "An Agent Based Macroeconomic Model with Social Classes and Endogenous Crises," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 285-306, November.
    9. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, March.
    10. Liu, Sitian & Su, Yichen, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for density: Evidence from the U.S. housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    11. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    12. Gupta, Arpit & Mittal, Vrinda & Peeters, Jonas & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2022. "Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 594-636.
    13. Liu, Yanan & Tang, Yugang, 2021. "Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Stephen Schneider, 2004. "Organized crime, money laundering, and the real estate market in Canada," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 99-118, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Batalha, Mafalda & Gonçalves, Duarte & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Walter D'Lima & Luis Arturo Lopez & Archana Pradhan, 2022. "COVID‐19 and housing market effects: Evidence from U.S. shutdown orders," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-339, June.
    3. Huang, Naqun & Pang, Jindong & Yang, Yanmin, 2023. "JUE Insight: COVID-19 and household preference for urban density in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    5. Baulkaran, Vishaal & Jain, Pawan, 2023. "COVID-19, home equity and retirement funding," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    6. Samuel Wiese & Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa & Joel Dyer & Jose Moran & Marco Pangallo & Francois Lafond & John Muellbauer & Anisoara Calinescu & J. Doyne Farmer, 2024. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model," Papers 2409.18760, arXiv.org.
    7. Bergeaud, Antonin & Eyméoud, Jean-Benoît & Garcia, Thomas & Henricot, Dorian, 2023. "Working from home and corporate real estate," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    8. Malik, Khyati & Kim, Sowon & Cultice, Brian J., 2023. "The impact of remote work on green space values in regional housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    10. Behrens, Kristian & Kichko, Sergei & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2024. "Working from home: Too much of a good thing?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Keith Ihlanfeldt & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2025. "Single-family home spaciousness and COVID-19," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 74(1), pages 1-29, March.
    12. Mérő, Bence & Borsos, András & Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Oláh, Zsolt & Vágó, Nikolett, 2023. "A high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Bro, Jeppe & Eriksen, Jonas N., 2025. "Subjective expectations and house prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    15. Bernardo Alves Furtado, 2022. "PolicySpace2: Modeling Markets and Endogenous Public Policies," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 25(1), pages 1-8.
    16. Lee, Kangoh, 2023. "Working from home as an economic and social change: A review," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Arzu Uluc & J Doyne Farmer, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 386-432.
    18. Gokan,Toshitaka & Kichko,Sergei & Matheson,Jesse A & Thisse,Jacques-François, 2022. "How the rise of teleworking will reshape labor markets and cities?," IDE Discussion Papers 868, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    19. Bardoscia, Marco & Carro, Adrian & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Napoletano, Mauro & Popoyan, Lilit & Roventini, Andrea & Uluc, Arzu, 2025. "The impact of prudential regulation on the UK housing market and economy: Insights from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • K25 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Real Estate Law
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:18:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11403-023-00391-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.