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COVID-19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium-term relationship through dynamic regression models

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo

    (University of Jaén)

  • Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández

    (University of Jaén)

  • José Luis Durán-Román

    (University of Jaén)

  • Jairo Casado-Montilla

    (University of Jaén)

Abstract

The global pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has significantly affected tourism, especially in Spain, as it was among the first countries to be affected by the pandemic and is among the world’s biggest tourist destinations. Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic, especially in the case of tourist companies. Therefore, being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector, thereby improving the response to the crisis by policymakers and investors. Accordingly, a dynamic regression model was developed to predict the behavior of shares in the Spanish tourism sector according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term. It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and cases are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo & Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández & José Luis Durán-Román & Jairo Casado-Montilla, 2023. "COVID-19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain: medium-term relationship through dynamic regression models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:9:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-022-00402-0
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-022-00402-0
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