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Decoupling and decomposition analysis of industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China from a dynamic perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ye Yuan

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Yumeng Lu

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Jiayi Xie

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Jiawei Tao

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Xiaowei Chuai

    (Nanjing University)

  • Sihua Huang

    (Nanjing Institute of Technology
    Ministry of Natural Resources
    International Joint Laboratory of Green & Low Carbon Development)

  • Rui Zhang

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Jiahao Zhai

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Xiaoqing Wang

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Lijie Pu

    (Nanjing University
    Ministry of Natural Resources
    Nanjing Institute of Technology
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

Abstract

China faces the formidable challenge of balancing economic growth with carbon emissions reduction. Therefore, clarifying the decoupling relationship between the two is crucial for formulating effective carbon mitigation policies and achieving this balance. Previous studies often investigate the decoupling at a static perspective that may introduce some errors. In this paper, we propose to conduct such research from a dynamic perspective, and we apply it to carry out a study focusing on China’s provincial industrial carbon emissions (ICE) and industrial value-add (IVA) from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, using the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), we further explored the factors influencing changes in ICE. The results underscore the necessity of a dynamic perspective due to the observed non-linear interannual variation observed in ICE, IVA, industrial energy consumption (IEC), and population. Most provinces exhibit an increasing decoupling trend between ICE and IVA, with the majority still in a status of weak decoupling over the long-term interval (2001–2020). Among the four factors analyzed, energy intensity and economic intensity emerge as the primary contributor to decreasing and increasing ICE, respectively. Carbon intensity and population exhibit both positive and negative effects on increasing ICE, with the positive generally outweighing the negative. To effectively reduce carbon emissions, China should tailor differentiated policies for each provincial region considering both their absolute emission amounts and decoupling evolution trajectories. Furthermore, efforts should be made to expand the use of renewable energy, optimize the energy mix, and adopt cleaner technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye Yuan & Yumeng Lu & Jiayi Xie & Jiawei Tao & Xiaowei Chuai & Sihua Huang & Rui Zhang & Jiahao Zhai & Xiaoqing Wang & Lijie Pu, 2025. "Decoupling and decomposition analysis of industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China from a dynamic perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 5159-5181, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-024-05217-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-024-05217-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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