Ecological consequences of China’s regional development strategy: evidence from water ecological footprint in Yangtze River Economic Belt

Focusing on the efficient allocation and scientific management of water resources in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), the total and per capita water ecological footprints (WEFs) and water ecological carrying capacities (WECCs) in each province and municipality from 2004 to 2018 were evaluated through an improved water ecological footprint analysis model. Then, the panel data were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation, and regression discontinuity models were applied to examine the effect of YREB policy on local WEF. Results show that, first, in terms of temporal trend, for the entire YREB, per capita WEFs first increased and then declined with fluctuation, while per capita WECCs fluctuated in a small range, which is further evident in that only Zhejiang had both a low level and a significant downward trend in per capita WEFs. Second, in terms of spatial features, per capita WEFs were lower in the upstream area and higher in the downstream area (except for Zhejiang), and per capita WECCs were roughly higher in the southern area and lower in the northern area. Third, China’s YREB policy had a negative impact on local WEF, which was specifically more significant in developed regions than in developing regions and more effective with agriculture than with industry. The findings of this study indicate that the YREB can achieve a harmonious situation of economic development and ecological protection, but attention is needed to ensure industrial water savings and policy implementation in backward areas. Graphical abstract