IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial analysis of wildfire incidence in the USA: the role of climatic spillovers


  • Massimiliano Agovino

    (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Massimiliano Cerciello

    (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Aniello Ferraro

    (University of Naples Parthenope)

  • Antonio Garofalo

    (University of Naples Parthenope)


Wildfires constitute a serious threat for both the environment and human well-being. The US fire policy aims to tackle this problem, devoting a sizeable amount of resources and resorting extensively to fire suppression strategies. The theoretical literature has established a link between climate conditions and wildfire incidence. Using state-level data from 2002 to 2013 for the USA, this work proposes a wildfire incidence indicator and runs a generalized spatial ordered probit model in order to test the findings of the previous literature empirically. Moreover, this article investigates the extent of spatial spillovers in the climatic covariates. The results highlight a significant impact of precipitation and temperature on fire incidence and provide some evidence of the role of spatial spillovers. In particular, transitions from lower to higher wildfire incidence levels are significantly encouraged by increases in local temperature and significantly discouraged by increases in both local precipitation and lagged precipitation. The present analysis complements the recent literature, confirming the previous findings with a solid empirical investigation and offering a policy-oriented picture of wildfire risks all over the USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Agovino & Massimiliano Cerciello & Aniello Ferraro & Antonio Garofalo, 2021. "Spatial analysis of wildfire incidence in the USA: the role of climatic spillovers," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6084-6105, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00863-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-00863-2

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL:
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2016. "Long-Term Persistence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1401-1436, December.
    2. Massimiliano Agovino & Alessandro Crociata & Pier Sacco, 2016. "Location matters for pro-environmental behavior: a spatial Markov Chains approach to proximity effects in differentiated waste collection," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 295-315, January.
    3. Geoffrey H. Donovan & Patricia A. Champ & David T. Butry, 2007. "Wildfire Risk and Housing Prices: A Case Study from Colorado Springs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 217-233.
    4. Fitch, Ryan A. & Kim, Yeon Su & Waltz, Amy E.M. & Crouse, Joe E., 2018. "Changes in potential wildland fire suppression costs due to restoration treatments in Northern Arizona Ponderosa pine forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 101-114.
    5. Gisela Wachinger & Ortwin Renn & Chloe Begg & Christian Kuhlicke, 2013. "The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1049-1065, June.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588.
    7. E. Stavros & John Abatzoglou & Donald McKenzie & Narasimhan Larkin, 2014. "Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 455-468, October.
    8. Lauer, Christopher J. & Montgomery, Claire A. & Dietterich, Thomas G., 2017. "Spatial interactions and optimal forest management on a fire-threatened landscape," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-120.
    9. Evangelos Mitsakis & Iraklis Stamos & Anestis Papanikolaou & Georgia Aifadopoulou & Haris Kontoes, 2014. "Assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: case study of the 2007 wildfires in Peloponnesus," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 87-107, May.
    10. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2014. "The Biggest Myth in Spatial Econometrics," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(4), pages 1-33, December.
    11. Christian Pfarr & Andreas Schmid & Udo Schneider, 2011. "Estimating ordered categorical variables using panel data: a generalized ordered probit model with an autofit procedure," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 7-23.
    12. Gaither, Cassandra Johnson & Poudyal, Neelam C. & Goodrick, Scott & Bowker, J.M. & Malone, Sparkle & Gan, Jianbang, 2011. "Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 24-36, January.
    13. Haiganoush K. Preisler & Benjamin P. Bryant & Anthony L. Westerling, 2014. "Scenarios for future wildfire risk in California: links between changing demography, land use, climate, and wildfire," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 454-471, September.
    14. Walton, Z.L. & Poudyal, N.C. & Hepinstall-Cymerman, J. & Johnson Gaither, C. & Boley, B.B., 2016. "Exploring the role of forest resources in reducing community vulnerability to the heat effects of climate change," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 94-102.
    15. Mendes, Isabel, 2010. "A theoretical economic model for choosing efficient wildfire suppression strategies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 323-329, June.
    16. Herawati, Hety & Santoso, Heru, 2011. "Tropical forest susceptibility to and risk of fire under changing climate: A review of fire nature, policy and institutions in Indonesia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 227-233, April.
    17. Meg A Krawchuk & Max A Moritz & Marc-André Parisien & Jeff Van Dorn & Katharine Hayhoe, 2009. "Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Michael J. Orlando, 2000. "On the importance of geographic and technological proximity for R&D spillovers : an empirical investigation," Research Working Paper RWP 00-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Massimiliano Agovino & Massimiliano Cerciello & Aniello Ferraro & Antonio Garofalo, 0. "Spatial analysis of wildfire incidence in the USA: the role of climatic spillovers," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-22.
    2. Maurice Mutisya & Moses W. Ngware & Caroline W. Kabiru & Ngianga-bakwin Kandala, 2016. "The effect of education on household food security in two informal urban settlements in Kenya: a longitudinal analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 743-756, August.
    3. Sen, Suphi & Vollebergh, Herman, 2018. "The effectiveness of taxing the carbon content of energy consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 74-99.
    4. Hassen, Sied, 2018. "The effect of farmyard manure on the continued and discontinued use of inorganic fertilizer in Ethiopia: An ordered probit analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 523-532.
    5. Boltho, Andrea & Carlin, Wendy & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2018. "Why East Germany did not become a new Mezzogiorno," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 308-325.
    6. Bonev, Petyo & Glachant, Matthieu & Söderberg, Magnus, 2018. "A Mechanism for Institutionalised Threat of Regulation: Evidence from the Swedish District Heating Market," Economics Working Paper Series 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    7. Dayton M. Lambert, 2020. "Dynamic panel estimation of a regional adjustment model with spatial-temporal robust covariance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 245-265, December.
    8. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Hassen, Sied, 2017. "Household fuel choice in urban China: evidence from panel data," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 392-413, August.
    9. Massimiliano Cerciello & Massimiliano Agovino & Antonio Garofalo, 2019. "Estimating urban food waste at the local level: are good practices in food consumption persistent?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 863-886, October.
    10. Luisa Corrado & Andrea Fazio & Alessandra Pelloni, 2020. "Pro-environmental attitudes, local environmental conditions and recycling behavior," Working Paper series 20-21, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Travis Warziniack & Patricia Champ & James Meldrum & Hannah Brenkert-Smith & Christopher M. Barth & Lilia C. Falk, 2019. "Responding to Risky Neighbors: Testing for Spatial Spillover Effects for Defensible Space in a Fire-Prone WUI Community," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1023-1047, August.
    12. Jean Dubé & Diègo Legros & Sotirios Thanos, 2018. "Past price ‘memory’ in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-138, January.
    13. Averi Chakrabarti & Karen A Grépin & Stéphane Helleringer, 2019. "The impact of supplementary immunization activities on routine vaccination coverage: An instrumental variable analysis in five low-income countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, February.
    14. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    15. Fan Li & Prashant Loyalka & Hongmei Yi & Yaojiang Shi & Natalie Johnson & Scott Rozelle, 2016. "Ability Tracking and Social Capital in China’s Rural Secondary School System," LICOS Discussion Papers 37916, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    16. Sisira S. Withanachchi & Ilia Kunchulia & Giorgi Ghambashidze & Rami Al Sidawi & Teo Urushadze & Angelika Ploeger, 2018. "Farmers’ Perception of Water Quality and Risks in the Mashavera River Basin, Georgia: Analyzing the Vulnerability of the Social-Ecological System through Community Perceptions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(9), pages 1-26, August.
    17. Ji Yan & Sally Brocksen, 2013. "Adolescent risk perception, substance use, and educational attainment," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1037-1055, September.
    18. Sènakpon Fidèle A. Dedehouanou & Luca Tiberti & Hilaire G. Houeninvo & Djohodo Inès Monwanou, 2019. "Working while studying: Employment premium or penalty for youth in Benin?," Working Papers PMMA 2019-03, PEP-PMMA.
    19. Sandra Müllbacher & Wolfgang Nagl, 2017. "Labour supply in Austria: an assessment of recent developments and the effects of a tax reform," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 465-486, August.
    20. Campbell, Randall C. & Nagel, Gregory L., 2016. "Private information and limitations of Heckman's estimator in banking and corporate finance research," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-195.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-020-00863-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.