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Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence

  • David Giles

    ()

  • Chad Stroomer

In this paper we develop flexible techniques for measuring the speed of output convergence between countries when such convergence may be of an unknown non-linear form. We then calculate these convergence speeds for various countries, in terms of half-lives, using a time-series data-set for 88 countries. These calculations are based on both nonparametric kernel regression and ‘fuzzy’ regression, and the results are compared with more restrictive estimates based on the assumption of linear convergence. The calculated half-lives are regressed, again in various flexible ways, on cross-section data for the degree of openness to trade. We find evidence that favours the hypothesis that increased trade openness is associated with a faster rate of convergence in output between countries.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-006-0060-y
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 883-903

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:883-903
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  1. David E. A. Giles & Carl Mosk, 2003. "Ruminant Eructation and a Long-Run Environmental Kuznets' Curve for Enteric Methane in New Zealand: Conventional and Fuzzy Regression Analysis," Econometrics Working Papers 0306, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  2. Henrekson, Magnus & Torstensson, Johan & Torstensson, Rasha, 1997. "Growth effects of European integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1537-1557, August.
  3. Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Chad Stroomer & David E.A. Giles, 2003. "Income Convergence and trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  5. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the U.S.: Evidence from County-level Data," Emory Economics 0306, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  8. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. " Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-70, June.
  9. Roberto Cellini & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 463-474.
  10. O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 1996. "Trade, Migration and Convergence: An Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  14. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  15. Ben-David, Dan & Bohara, Alok K, 1997. "Evidence on the Contribution of Trade Reform towards International Income Equalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 246-55, May.
  16. Attila Hornok & Rolf Larsson, 2000. "The finite sample distribution of the KPSS test," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 108-121.
  17. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
  19. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
  20. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & J. MARRON & L. YANG, 1996. "Discussion," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  21. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. David E.A. Giles & Hui Feng, 2003. "Testing For Convergence in Output and in 'Well-Being' in Industrialized Countries," Econometrics Working Papers 0302, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  23. Slaughter, Matthew J, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 194-99, May.
  24. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  25. David E. A. Giles & Robert Draeseke, 2001. "Econometric Modelling based on Pattern recognition via the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm," Econometrics Working Papers 0101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  26. Matthew J. Slaughter, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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