IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence


  • David Giles


  • Chad Stroomer


In this paper we develop flexible techniques for measuring the speed of output convergence between countries when such convergence may be of an unknown non-linear form. We then calculate these convergence speeds for various countries, in terms of half-lives, from two time-series data-sets. These calculations are based on both nonparametric kernel regression and 'fuzzy' regression, and the results are compared with more restrictive estimates based on the assumption of linear convergence. The calculated half-lives are regressed, again in various flexible ways, on cross-section data for the degree of openness to trade. We find evidence that favours the hypothesis that increased trade openness is associated with a faster rate of convergence in output between countries.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Giles & Chad Stroomer, 2006. "Does Trade Openness Affect the Speed of Output Convergence? Some Empirical Evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 883-903, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:883-903 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-006-0060-y

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-170, June.
    3. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    4. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    5. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    6. David E. A. Giles & Robert Draeseke, 2001. "Econometric Modelling based on Pattern recognition via the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Algorithm," Econometrics Working Papers 0101, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    7. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the U.S.: Evidence from County-level Data," Emory Economics 0306, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    11. Chad Stroomer & David E.A. Giles, 2003. "Income Convergence and trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    12. David E. A. Giles & Carl Mosk, 2003. "Ruminant Eructation and a Long-Run Environmental Kuznets' Curve for Enteric Methane in New Zealand: Conventional and Fuzzy Regression Analysis," Econometrics Working Papers 0306, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    13. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier.
    14. Roberto Cellini & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 463-474.
    15. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & J. MARRON & L. YANG, 1996. "Discussion," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,65, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    16. Henrekson, Magnus & Torstensson, Johan & Torstensson, Rasha, 1997. "Growth effects of European integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1537-1557, August.
    17. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    18. Ben-David, Dan & Bohara, Alok K, 1997. "Evidence on the Contribution of Trade Reform towards International Income Equalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 246-255, May.
    19. Attila Hornok & Rolf Larsson, 2000. "The finite sample distribution of the KPSS test," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 108-121.
    20. David EA Giles, 2005. "Output Convergence and International Trade: Time-Series and Fuzzy Clustering Evidence for New Zealand and her Trading Partners, 1950 - 1992," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 93-114.
    21. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
    22. Slaughter, Matthew J, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 194-199, May.
    23. Matthew J. Slaughter, 1997. "Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 5897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 1996. "Trade, Migration and Convergence: An Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. David E.A. Giles & Hui Feng, 2003. "Testing For Convergence in Output and in 'Well-Being' in Industrialized Countries," Econometrics Working Papers 0302, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    26. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Hui Feng & David E. Giles, 2007. "Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Analysis and Model Selection: Theory and Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0710, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    2. Omid Ranjbar & Chien-Chiang Lee & Tsangyao Chang & Mei-Ping Chen, 2014. "Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test With Multiple Structural Breaks," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(3), pages 371-391, September.
    3. Joseph LiPuma & Scott Newbert & Jonathan Doh, 2013. "The effect of institutional quality on firm export performance in emerging economies: a contingency model of firm age and size," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 817-841, May.
    4. Zarembova, Andrea & Lyocsa, Stefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "The Real Convergence of CEE Countries: A Study of Real GDP per capita," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 642-656..

    More about this item


    Openness; Convergence; Fuzzy regression; Lyapunov coefficient; C14; C21; C22; F15; F43; O4;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:883-903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.