IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/comgts/v16y2019i1d10.1007_s10287-018-0332-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Timing portfolio strategies with exponential Lévy processes

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Ortobelli Lozza

    (University of Bergamo
    VSB-TU of Ostrava)

  • Enrico Angelelli

    (University of Brescia)

  • Alda Ndoci

    (University of Bergamo)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of parametric timing portfolio strategies on the U.S. stock market. In particular, we assume that the log-returns follow a given parametric Lévy process and we describe a methodology to approximate the distributions of stopping times using the underlying Markov transition matrix. Therefore, we propose the use of portfolio strategies based on the maximization of the ratio between the expected first passage time to reach a low level of wealth and the expected first passage time to reach a high level of wealth. Finally, we compare the ex-post wealth obtained maximizing the ratio of proper expected stopping times under different distributional assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Ortobelli Lozza & Enrico Angelelli & Alda Ndoci, 2019. "Timing portfolio strategies with exponential Lévy processes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 97-127, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-018-0332-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-018-0332-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10287-018-0332-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10287-018-0332-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Bruti-Liberati, 2007. "Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps in Finance," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1, July-Dece.
    2. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    3. Sergio Ortobelli & Sebastiano Vitali & Marco Cassader & Tomáš Tichý, 2018. "Portfolio selection strategy for fixed income markets with immunization on average," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 395-415, January.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot & Howard M. Taylor, 1967. "On the Distribution of Stock Price Differences," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 15(6), pages 1057-1062, December.
    5. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obłój, 2013. "Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 771-800, October.
    6. Wenocur, Michael L., 1987. "Diffusion first passage times: Approximations and related differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 27, pages 159-177.
    7. Liming Feng & Vadim Linetsky, 2008. "Pricing Discretely Monitored Barrier Options And Defaultable Bonds In Lévy Process Models: A Fast Hilbert Transform Approach," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 337-384, July.
    8. Valeri Zakamouline, 2014. "Portfolio performance evaluation with loss aversion," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 699-710, April.
    9. Jin-Chuan Duan & Technology & Jean-Guy Simonato, "undated". "American GARCH Option Pricing by a Markov Chain Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 131, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Miloš Kopa & Vittorio Moriggia & Sebastiano Vitali, 2018. "Individual optimal pension allocation under stochastic dominance constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 255-291, January.
    11. Constantinos Kardaras & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "Minimizing the Expected Market Time to Reach a Certain Wealth Level," Research Paper Series 230, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    13. Dumas, Bernard & Luciano, Elisa, 1991. "An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transactions Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 577-595, June.
    14. Ortobelli, Sergio & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010. "Risk management and dynamic portfolio selection with stable Paretian distributions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 195-211, March.
    15. Sergio Ortobelli Lozza & Enrico Angelelli & Daniele Toninelli, 2011. "Set-Portfolio Selection with the Use of Market Stochastic Bounds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 5-24, November.
    16. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    17. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2001. "American option pricing under GARCH by a Markov chain approximation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1689-1718, November.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    19. Vladimir Cherny & Jan Obloj, 2011. "Portfolio optimisation under non-linear drawdown constraints in a semimartingale financial model," Papers 1110.6289, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    20. Kondor, Imre & Pafka, Szilard & Nagy, Gabor, 2007. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1545-1573, May.
    21. Post, Thierry & Kopa, Miloš, 2013. "General linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 321-332.
    22. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2006. "Portfolio selection with a drawdown constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3171-3189, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Paolo Guasoni & Jan Obłój, 2016. "The Incentives Of Hedge Fund Fees And High-Water Marks," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 269-295, April.
    3. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    4. Mark T. Leung & An-Sing Chen, 2005. "Performance evaluation of neural network architectures: the case of predicting foreign exchange correlations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 403-420.
    5. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-073 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
    8. Stekler, H. O. & Petrei, G., 2003. "Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 735-742.
    9. Mark T. Leung & An‐Sing Chen & Ruben Mancha, 2009. "Making trading decisions for financial‐engineered derivatives: a novel ensemble of neural networks using information content," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 257-277, October.
    10. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Hamao, Yasushi & Mei, Jianping, 2001. "Living with the "enemy": an analysis of foreign investment in the Japanese equity market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 715-735, October.
    12. Sandrine Lardic & Auguste Mpacko Priso, 1999. "Une comparaison des prévisions des experts à celles issues des modèles B VAR," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 161-180.
    13. Dwight R. Sanders & Philip Garcia & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1998. "The Forecasting Value of New Crop Futures: A Decision-Making Framework," Finance 9805003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    15. Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-073, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335690 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
    18. Nicolosi, Gina & Peng, Liang & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-336, May.
    19. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
    20. Sergio Ortobelli & Sebastiano Vitali & Marco Cassader & Tomáš Tichý, 2018. "Portfolio selection strategy for fixed income markets with immunization on average," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 395-415, January.
    21. Doug Rolph & Pu Shen, 1999. "Do the spreads between the E/P ratio and interest rates contain information on future equity market movements?," Research Working Paper 99-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    22. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lévy processes; Applied probability; Portfolio strategies; Stopping times;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:16:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10287-018-0332-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.