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What if versus probabilistic scenarios: a neuroscientific analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rosella Castellano

    (University of Rome Unitelma-Sapienza)

  • Marco Mancinelli

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Giorgia Ponsi

    (Sapienza University of Rome
    IRCCS Fondazione Santa Lucia)

  • Gaetano Tieri

    (University of Rome Unitelma-Sapienza
    IRCCS Fondazione Santa Lucia)

Abstract

Nowadays financial products are extremely complex and the decision to choose among them could represent a stressful event for individuals. Information related to the risk/return profile of an investment instrument and the way it is represented (framing effect) are crucial in determining the outcome of individuals’ decisions. In this paper we consider two schemes that can be employed to represent the random performances of risky financial products, namely the what if and probabilistic scenarios frames. This paper aims at measuring the impact of the two above mentioned schemes on investors’ decision accuracy and peripheral nervous system activity. In particular, the goal is twofold: (1) to investigate the behavioural and physiological indexes elicited in the decision-making process of investors who have to choose on the basis of the two different schemes; (2) to investigate on the effect of time pressure when probabilistic scenarios or what if frames are used. The first point is investigated by means of a decision making task, while the second one by means of a perceptual one.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosella Castellano & Marco Mancinelli & Giorgia Ponsi & Gaetano Tieri, 2021. "What if versus probabilistic scenarios: a neuroscientific analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 331-347, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03272-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03272-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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