IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spd/journl/v69y2019i3p35-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Where Has All the Demand Gone? Challenges to Growth in a “Neo-Mercantilist” Age

Author

Listed:
  • John Berdell

    (DePaul University, Department of Economics, Chicago IL, USA)

  • Thomas S. Mondschean

    (DePaul University, Department of Economics, Chicago IL, USA)

  • Rowena A. Pecchenino

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland)

Abstract

Extensive attention has been given to countries that run current account deficits, but little attention has been devoted to understanding why countries run large surpluses. This is surprising given that unsustainable international imbalances result from one as much as the other. We begin with a wideranging review of the literature to better understand the political and economic forces that lead to demand decreasing policies. We then demonstrate how the Systemic choices made within the Bretton Woods and Post Bretton Woods periods constrained and enabled the generation of large surpluses. Next, we examine imbalances at the global level to determine whether they are getting bigger rather than trending toward external balance. We find evidence that the trend towards imbalance is strengthening. We then analyze the patterns of these surpluses in four countries noting where government policies have most prominently contributed to the surpluses, pointing out the differing motivations for and implementations of these policies across countries. This leads us to ask, finally, what these trends portend and what can be done to mitigate or reverse them if they bode ill for global economic well-being.

Suggested Citation

  • John Berdell & Thomas S. Mondschean & Rowena A. Pecchenino, 2019. "Where Has All the Demand Gone? Challenges to Growth in a “Neo-Mercantilist” Age," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(3), pages 35-54, July-Sept.
  • Handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:69:y:2019:i:3:p:35-54
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spoudai.unipi.gr/index.php/spoudai/article/download/2740/2686/2740-3522-1-SM
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 421-480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    3. Allan Hernández & Alberto Trejos, 2013. "Fiscal Moral Hazard Due to Monetary Integration," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 63-85, January-j.
    4. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    5. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 5-49.
    7. Irwin, Douglas A, 1992. "Strategic Trade Policy and Mercantilist Trade Rivalries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 134-139, May.
    8. Robert Ekelund & Robert Tollison, 1997. "On neoinstitutional theory and preclassical economies: mercantilism revisited," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 375-399.
    9. William D. Grampp, 1952. "The Liberal Elements in English Mercantilism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 465-501.
    10. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden Stops in the Euro Area," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(3).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    2. Heng, Dyna, 2011. "Does financial development reduce the motivation to hoard foreign reserves?," MPRA Paper 48555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    3. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "International Reserves Management in a Model of Partial Sovereign Default," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_14, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    4. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2017. "Overcoming the Original Sin: Gains from Local Currency External Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_27, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    5. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    6. Gaowang Wang & Heng-fu Zou, 2018. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in a Mercantilist Economy," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 13(2), pages 171-195, June.
    7. Dariusz Urban, 2011. "Macroeconomic Considerations and Motives of Sovereign Wealth Funds Activity," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 5(2), June.
    8. Schilirò, Daniele, 2016. "Rules, Imbalances and Growth in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 75641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    10. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "Large Hoarding Of International Reserves And The Emerging Global Economic Architecture," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 487-503, September.
    11. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Anne‐Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "What Drove the Massive Hoarding of International Reserves in Emerging Economies? A Time‐varying Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 164-176, February.
    13. Mr. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/214, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Ian Bain, 2006. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-476, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    15. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Chinese reserves accumulation and US monetary policy: Will China go on buying US financial assets?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1105, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    16. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    17. Kim, Yun Jung, 2017. "Sudden stops, limited enforcement, and optimal reserves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 273-282.
    18. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Relationship between International Reserves and FX Rate Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    19. Maria Strömqvist & Mr. Sunil Sharma & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2007/151, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Demand; Neo-Mercantilism; Self-insurance; BOP Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:69:y:2019:i:3:p:35-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depirgr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depirgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.